#以太坊ETF批准预期 #5月市场关键事件 #BTC走势分析
According to Spot On Chain’s report, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $56,000 and $70,000 during May, June, and July 2024.
This forecast indicates a 48% chance that Bitcoin prices will fall below $60,000.
In addition, the report recommends a cautious approach, acknowledging that prices may see short-term fluctuations or adjustments.
Spot On Chain’s analysis shows a 63% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in the second half of 2024, which is a relatively convincing trend.
This medium-term forecast reflects the general bullish sentiment in the market, which is further boosted by the expected interest rate cuts after the December 2023 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
These rate cuts, which are aimed at reducing the federal funds rate to 4.6%, are expected to boost demand for risky assets such as stocks and Bitcoin.
Spot On Chain's model suggests that Bitcoin has a good chance of breaking through the $150,000 threshold in the first half of 2025. Specifically, the probability of this happening is 42%, indicating a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
More importantly, looking at the entire year of 2025, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $150,000 rises to a staggering 70%. Based on historical data and patterns from previous cycles, Bitcoin reaches an all-time high approximately 6 to 12 months after a halving event.
