#BTC走势分析 #以太坊ETF批准预期 A falling dollar could be the driving force behind the next wave of cryptocurrency price increases

On the surface, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio doesn’t seem too bad. In 2023, it was lower than the G7 average (123%) and about half lower than Japan, the world’s most indebted country. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio that year was as high as 255%. But in reality, the two countries have very different economic conditions, and the significant difference between the two is the structure of debt ownership. In Japan, nearly 90% of debt is held by domestic citizens and institutions, but about a quarter of U.S. debt is held by international debt buyers. So in order to ensure that this debt remains attractive to them, the United States needs to pay a higher rate of return (i.e., a higher interest rate) relative to its global competitors, especially as the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to increase, which means The risks of lending to the government also increase. Japan's net debt is well below its debt-to-GDP ratio, meaning it holds more foreign assets than it owes other countries, while the opposite is true in the United States, making it easier for Japan to manage its growing debt.

Japan has also not been plagued by inflation like the United States, which the Federal Reserve has controlled by raising and keeping interest rates high, making soaring debt levels particularly dangerous. As we all know, the solution to inflation is through tightening monetary policy. But higher interest rates mean higher debt repayments, consumer dissatisfaction, and ultimately an economic slowdown. In fact, the Fed already faces all of these problems. Consumer confidence is starting to falter, debt repayments topped $1 trillion last year, and growth in the first quarter of this year was much lower than anyone expected. So much so that there are now expectations of stagflation: inflation continues to rise while economic growth stagnates. In this case, higher debt also poses a problem because it limits the government's ability to use fiscal powers to mitigate the economic slowdown. With debt-to-GDP ratios high and expected to continue rising rapidly over the coming decades, governments will have to face reality sooner or later. That is to say, it is inevitable that the United States will continue to raise its debt ceiling and continue to print money on a large scale.