Recently, as Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully broken through and maintained high volatility, while many altcoins have generally fallen, the market atmosphere seems quite dull, making many investors anxious. Here, I would like to share with you my recent observations and thoughts.
Recently, the helicopter carrying the Iranian president had an unfortunate hard landing, and the specific circumstances are still unclear. At the time of the accident, Iran was experiencing heavy fog and extremely low visibility, which undoubtedly increased the possibility of the accident. However, there are endless speculations about this incident on the Internet, and some people even suspect that there are shadows of Israeli and American intelligence agencies behind it. After all, during Trump's administration, he once commanded drones to carry out air strikes on Iranian military leader Soleimani. Whether this incident was an accident or a human plan, it undoubtedly brought tension to Iran, and this fluctuation in national sentiment is likely to affect the decision-making of the country's top leaders.
Although Iran only accounts for 3% of the global oil production, its geographical location is extremely strategic. It controls the throat of the Persian Gulf, and the oil exports of Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and other countries must pass through here. Once Iran enters a state of emergency for some reason, international oil prices are likely to rise sharply, which is undoubtedly a huge challenge for the US economy.
Currently, one of the most concerned economic indicators of the Federal Reserve is the inflation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Recently, the sharp rise in the prices of metals such as gold, silver and copper has brought considerable pressure on inflation. If crude oil prices also rise, the inflation data will further deteriorate, and whether the Federal Reserve can start the interest rate cut policy this year will also be a big question mark.
From a larger cycle perspective, the world has gradually entered a cycle of interest rate cuts. Several major central banks, including the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada, have recently announced plans to cut interest rates. Although interest rate cuts have become a trend, the magnitude of the cuts is relatively small, and it may take quite a while to return to the era of low interest rates. During this period, the market performance of risky assets may not be particularly outstanding, so Bitcoin may be able to maintain a stable upward trend, while the volatility of altcoins may be more intense.
As for Bitcoin, judging from the on-chain data, its supply is currently at a sustained low level and is showing a shrinking trend. In the absence of unexpected events, as the market's expectations for a rate cut in September gradually increase, the potential demand for Bitcoin will become clearer. Therefore, for investors holding Bitcoin, it may be a wise choice to keep their positions unchanged.
However, in this uncertain market, we also need to pay attention to the following points:
First, it is crucial to reduce leverage. Against the backdrop of global turmoil, any event that could lead to an escalation of conflict could be interpreted by the market as a short-term negative signal. Therefore, investors need to be cautious and avoid excessive use of leverage for trading.
Secondly, we need to be cautious about high-market-cap MEME coins. At present, the popularity of popular MEME coins such as GME has begun to fade. Once you blindly chase the rise, you may face the risk of being locked up for a long time. In contrast, some niche but potential MEME coins may be more worthy of attention.
In addition, Gemini Exchange announced that it will begin returning the first 97% of crypto assets to customers of the GenesisEarn program by the end of May. This news may have a certain selling pressure on the market, especially for investors who hold related altcoins. Therefore, in the next period of time, we need to pay close attention to market trends and avoid blindly chasing ups and downs.
Finally, the upcoming May 23 will be an important moment for whether the first ETH spot ETF can be approved. Although the market generally expects that its approval is unlikely, once approved, its trend may have a certain impact on mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Therefore, we need to remain vigilant and avoid taking excessive risks due to leveraged trading.
In summary, in the current market environment, we need to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude, lower expected returns, and patiently wait for the market to turn around. At the same time, we can reduce investment risks and seek better investment opportunities by paying attention to on-chain data, reducing leverage, cautiously chasing high-market-value MEME currencies, and paying attention to potential good news. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #BTC走势分析 $BTC $SOL $ETH
