A new week has begun. Today is a festive day. I wish you all a happy 520 holiday!
The market is still as boring as before, rising and falling, and then, many varieties are still in the process of setting new lows. According to the analysis in the previous article, the current US Nasdaq has already set a new high. It is only a matter of time before Bitcoin, as a copycat of the US stock market, sets a new historical high. I just don’t know how long it will take for this grinding bottom to come out. At present, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded to a certain extent, but many copies are still bleeding. In this case, friends who are bottom-fishing in the copies and doing swing trading should still pay attention to controlling their positions and set stop losses!
What needs to be focused on this week is the news about the Ethereum ETF. According to the current market trend, it has actually been fully priced and there is a high probability that it will not pass. Therefore, the turning point may occur on Thursday. It may take a few days of pain at present. The general trend is definitely bullish, but before the trend comes, the key is how we can keep our positions alive!
Judging from the liquidation map of Bitcoin, there are still many bearish people. It takes an opportunity to break through the historical high. It may be difficult without the pull of news. Be patient and wait. With such a skewed long-short ratio, there should not be a big drop. It will just be a spike. It has been a month since the halving. According to historical trends, it will come one or two months after the halving. The halving market in 20 years took more than two months to adjust before it started to work. Because the price hit a new high first and the halving came later in this round, the adjustment time may be relatively limited!
The longer the bottoming time is, the greater the explosive power will be in the later stage! You can't eat hot tofu in a hurry! Nothing can be rushed, continue to invest, don't go all in, hold the position patiently, and wait for the trend to come!
How to find strong projects at this stage:
As for the L2 sector, OP is one of them. I have actually been observing this variety for a long time, but I have not participated too much in the waves of this project. Instead, STRK and ARB have participated more. In fact, participating in OP may have greater opportunities and more opportunities!
There is also WIF in the SOL ecosystem, and TRB is definitely one of them. Of course, I don’t participate in this category too much! Bands represent opportunities. For the situation where the overall market activity is limited, buying projects controlled by strong dealers has such advantages, and there is a certain profit margin.
We need to watch the market more often, find the market sense, and know roughly which projects are controlled by the main force. When the market falls, or when you want to buy, you roughly know which categories you should ambush. I would like to mention another project here, that is ORDI. The characteristic of this type of project is that it can be pulled up in a short time! Of course, you may say that there are many projects that can be pulled up in a short time. Why these few? This depends on your own market sense. The market is not short of opportunities. The opportunities are all in our accumulated experience! As long as the bull market comes, the performance of such projects controlled by strong dealers will not be too bad!
The market retracement is an opportunity to layout. Currently, Ethereum, as the leader of the cottage industry, has broken through the suppression of the daily downward trend line. Secondly, Bitcoin, as a cottage of US stocks, has reached a new high. With the Nasdaq hitting a new high, Bitcoin is likely to reach a new high next. Therefore, the current retracement is an opportunity. Pay attention to the capital movement of the main force and grasp the rotation market!
When the market is at a low level, we should buy boldly, because the room for decline is relatively limited, while the room for rise is imaginable. Instead of chasing the rise at a high level, it is better to ambush now!
After last week's CPI drama ended, the market will take a break this week. There will be no important data release this week, and more Federal Reserve officials will speak, with the focus on Powell's speech at 3:30 am tomorrow.
After summarizing it more than ten times, I got a rule: the stock price usually falls before Lao Bao speaks, and rebounds after he finishes speaking.
From a big-cycle perspective, a global interest rate cut cycle is already underway, with more than a dozen major central banks already cutting interest rates.
The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada and the National Bank of Poland will cut interest rates between now and the end of June. The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada and the National Bank of Poland will cut interest rates between now and the end of June.
The Federal Reserve may start its first interest rate cut in September. Despite the rate cut, the global base interest rate is still high. After several rate cuts by the European Central Bank, the interest rate may still be 3%. After the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year, it is estimated to be 4.8%. The era of low interest rates is gone forever, and the golden age of high-risk assets has ended!
Therefore, when we speculate in cryptocurrencies, we must lower our expectations, follow the trend, and not always expect a hundred or a thousand times the return.
Borrowing costs continue to rise amid interest rate hikes, and the cash reserves available to retail investors are drying up. The support that has caused the market to continue to be volatile is no longer sufficient. It is advisable to be cautious in chasing the rise of MEME coins. Instead of buying these MEME coins with a market value of more than 100 million US dollars, it is better to go to the primary market to buy local coins. There are many opportunities to get rich (of course, it is also easy to lose everything).
On-chain data and trading volume did not fluctuate over the weekend. Ignore short-term fluctuations at present. Just buy value coins and hold them patiently. The market is still bullish in the near future. Be careful to avoid coins that are unlocked in large quantities, such as SUI, AEVO, PYTH, etc., otherwise it will be difficult to get out of the trap. This week, we should also pay attention to opportunities in ETH and ETH ecological coins (SSV, ETHFi, etc.). On May 23, the SEC will approve whether the spot ETF of ETH will be approved. The probability is small, but the negative impact is positive!
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The article ends here. I will do a more detailed analysis in the circle. If you want to join, please go to Gongzhonghao (The Attack of Mr. Krabs)