Thoughts on which phase the current market is in
1. From a macro-cycle perspective, it is always a question of where the water comes from:
a. After the domestic withdrawal and the obvious reasons such as the current housing prices, there is no water coming from China
b. Europe has agreed to start cutting interest rates in June, so there may be water coming from Europe from June, and there may be smart money entering the market now
c. The United States is still following the conventional path of cutting interest rates in September, and the unconventional path before September is unpredictable "Plan B". But from the beginning of QT reduction, it can be regarded as the tap starting to close, so the amount of water in the pool will also increase (at least it will not drop too fast). In May, crude oil prices fell, rents, and used car prices were all sluggish. It can be expected that when the May CPI is announced in June, the data will definitely be lower than 3.4%. If it is given as 3.3%-3.2%, market confidence will be further boosted.
2. In terms of the mesocycle (red frame), the current sentiment is very similar to the correction after the approval of the ETF on January 10, which is the correction cycle of weakening sentiment after the BTC halving.
3. In terms of the microcycle (blue frame), the rise this weekend is very similar to the rise at the beginning of this month, that is, from May 4 to May 6. There is no selling pressure at the weekend. Although it has risen, it is more of a contract short harvest. The specific direction will have to wait until the US goes to work on Monday to determine.
Major events to pay attention to in the future:
5.21 Yellen's speech
5.23 Unemployment benefits and Fed meeting minutes
5.24 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and inflation rate expectations
5.30 Unemployment benefits
5.31 Core PCE
