【0517 Market Analysis and Suggestions】1/2

Institutional BTC adoption in the first quarter was ten times that of gold, and institutional bulls are on the way!

1. Fundamentals

1. On Thursday (May 16), the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to set new historical highs during the day. Although they closed in the negative on that day, Wall Street analysts were still generally optimistic about the market outlook, believing that there were all signs of a cyclical bull market at the moment, and the rise still had the power to continue. The two major retail stocks GameStop and AMC Cinemas continued to pull back, and the MeMe stocks such as PEPE and PEOPLE, which had already risen sharply, were likely to pull back. It is recommended to stop profits in batches.

2. The U.S. Senate passed a resolution to revoke SAB 121 with 60 votes in favor. The SAB 121 Act was an accounting announcement issued by the U.S. SEC in March 2022 that prohibited financial institutions from hosting big cakes. Whether to revoke it, Biden will sign it within 10 days. Once signed, it will be beneficial to $BTC and accelerate institutional entry.

3. In the first quarter of 2024, 937 financial institutions purchased BTC through ETFs, and only 95 companies invested in gold ETFs. The institutional adoption of BTC is ten times that of gold, and institutions have already entered the market.

2. Spot ETF trading

On May 16 (Thursday), there was a net inflow of US$257 million, the fourth consecutive day of net inflow, and there will be about 3,888 purchases after 21:30 on Friday night. There were 8 net inflows (including Grayscale), and only 2 showed 0 (no capital flow or small amount).

3. On-chain and off-chain data

1. The turnover rate of profit earners with a holding cost of less than US$60,000 only accounted for 7.7% of the day's transactions, and the loss rate of loss earners with a holding cost of more than US$66,500 only accounted for 3.4% of the total circulation on the day, indicating that at the current price, no matter whether the loss or profit investors have obvious signs of leaving the market, they are patiently waiting for the rise.

2. The chips in the range of $BTC 64500~65500 increased by about 300,000 pieces, and this range will become a short-term support.

3. The exchange rate of $ETH and Bitcoin hit a new low of the year. The net position of ETH exchange still accumulated in a small amount, and ETH and ETH series were obviously weak.

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