Last night's CPI data showed that the core CPI in April was 3.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and lower than the previous value of 3.8%. The broad CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, also in line with expectations, and lower than the previous value of 3.5%. Although these two data did not fall sharply below expectations as Morgan Stanley predicted, this should be the first decline in inflation since 2024. If I remember correctly, the data in the previous few months were basically higher than expected, so this time it is considered a turning point. It is standard evidence of a decline in inflation required by the Federal Reserve, and the boost to market confidence is still very obvious. Therefore, after the release of this data, the swap market raised the probability of a September rate cut to more than 80%, and the latest CME probability of a September rate cut also reached 73%. The rising expectations of a rate cut led to a sharp rebound in both the U.S. stock market and the currency market last night.
According to yesterday's analysis, as long as it is lower than or equal to 3.4, it will most likely take off on the spot. Sure enough, Bitcoin rose by more than 7.5% last night, which was the strongest rebound in the past month. In addition to the CPI data, the net inflow of US$300 million from ETFs last night also played a key role. Moreover, except for BlackRock's zero last night, other ETF institutions including Grayscale all saw positive capital inflows, which shows that everyone is relatively unified in boosting market confidence. Among them, FBTC, BITB, ARKB and GBTC ranked the top four in terms of inflows, with a single-day net inflow of US$300 million, second only to the US$378 million that flowed in on May 3. However, that was due to a huge outflow of US$563 million the day before, which was considered a bottom-fishing after a panic, while this time it is definitely a return to confidence in Bitcoin.
Ethereum performed poorly again. Although it rebounded with the broader market, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a record low, reaching as low as 0455. Ethereum has basically been in this trend before the SEC rejected the ETF. The price will not surely fall, but the exchange rate against BTC will certainly not be able to hold up, and will most likely continue to hit new lows until the negative news about the ETF is fully realized.
In terms of sectors, yesterday was actually close to a general rise, but like ETH, some markets could not outperform Bitcoin. For example, meme had been moving against the market in the past few days, so there was a relatively large correction last night. In particular, the decline of the GME series was terrible, and even many tokens with the same name showed ruggedness. Although the mainstream meme on the exchange has pulled back, the decline is not large, at least it is very small compared to the previous increase.
The sectors that really performed well yesterday included public chains AI RWA, Bitcoin ecology, etc. In terms of public chains, L1 performed better than L2, and FTM SEI's daily increase exceeded 20%. After two consecutive days of OpenAI and Google's conferences, the AI sector finally saw some momentum. Near FET TAO Agix and others increased by more than 15%. RWA was still the leader, and Ondo Polyx Trac performed well. The rebound of Bitcoin ecology was also generally strong. Ords increased by more than 20%, and Core STX also increased by more than 15%. However, the increases in sectors such as inscriptions and runes were still limited, basically underperforming Bitcoin, and the rune trading volume was still very low. Dog, the most traded on OKX, had only 6 BTC in 24 hours, and the trading volume of other runes was not worth seeing. It was basically considered to have no liquidity. Bitcoin NFT performed well, and the top few increased by about 20%, but like inscriptions and runes, there were also liquidity problems.
Summarize
After a month-long adjustment, Bitcoin rebounded strongly last night with favorable macro data. From the current market perspective, 60,500 has been supported and has been repeatedly verified. The market will continue to rise in an adjusted state. The strength of the rebound at the cottage level last night was also very good. This is what I said a few days ago that May is very important. It is a very good opportunity for many students who have not yet boarded the train. If you bought it a few days ago, you have already made a profit today. Since the meme was launched in the past two days, People has been relatively strong. I think on the one hand, the market value is relatively low, and on the other hand, it is facing the US election, so it is a good target and can be continued.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a record low, reaching 0.0455 yesterday. As the news of the SEC's rejection of the ETF gets closer, the exchange rate will most likely continue to hit new lows. However, I personally believe that when the negative news from the SEC comes to fruition, ETH will usher in a wave of rebound. In the long run, ETH's growth potential is also considerable. It is recommended to retain a reasonable ETH position.
SOL is still relatively strong. There are very few projects that can outperform Bitcoin in every round of rebound. It is basically the only one among the big blue chips. This rebound of about 14% proves that it is a better investment target than ETH. I have said the reason many times before. The innovation of this round of bull market basically occurred on the SOL chain. Now SOL and BTC are two extremes. SOL is the representative of the extreme application chain, so its long-term growth potential is very good.
The first shot of the market rebound has been fired, so the next step is to buy at low prices, and focus on the AI sector, the Ethereum series L2 sector, and the SOL sector is still the focus of the layout! At present, more and more institutions or companies have disclosed that they hold big cake ETFs. You must know that the environment will have an impact. More and more financial giants around the world will join this ranks one after another! It just takes a certain amount of time, which also lays the foundation for the bull market! There are buyers and sellers, and the chips are fully exchanged to pull to a higher position!
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
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