Share a new data: Use the long-term holder market inflation rate as a measure of changes in the market supply side. The yellow wavy line in the figure represents the "nominal inflation rate", that is, #BTC issued to miners every day (we can assume that this is the continuous seller pressure in the market). The green wavy line is the "LTH market inflation rate" obtained by calculating the daily change in the supply of long-term holders.
When the green line and the yellow line are glued together, it means that the accumulation speed of LTH is close to the speed of miner issuance. When the green line has a higher value, it means that the departure of LTH has increased the seller pressure (LTH balance has decreased), while the lower value indicates that the accumulation speed of LTH is higher than the speed of issuance to miners.
Through observation, we can find the following key points:
1. In the first two cycles, the green line and the yellow line mostly stick to each other before and after the halving day.
2. For a period of time after the halving, the green line will gradually exceed the yellow line, indicating that the LTH market inflation rate is rising relative to the nominal inflation rate and the seller pressure is increasing. It is often accompanied by the market entering the final rush to the top stage.
3. At the peak of the real bull market, the inflation rate of the LTH market also reached a peak, and it was much higher than the nominal inflation rate, which shows that the departure of long-term holders has sharply increased the seller pressure in the market (that is, the inflation rate of the available supply is very high). This also eventually leads to oversupply and triggers a bear market.
So now we have just passed the halving, and the green line and the yellow line are glued to each other, similar to the previous two cycles. From the data, LTH will experience a period of accumulation before breaking upward. When the inflation rate reaches a peak (much higher than the nominal inflation rate), it is the real top of this cycle. Obviously, it is not now.
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