In April, MG*CPI rose by 0.31% month-on-month, lower than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 0.4%, and core CPI rose by 0.29% month-on-month, in line with Bloomberg's forecast.

After the data was released, the market's expectations for the probability of a rate cut in July and before remained basically unchanged, but the probability of a rate cut in September and before rose to 92%.

Combined with the analysis of the US political cycle, although the result of the "weighted average" of the forward curve is a high probability of a rate cut before September, the September FOMC is already quite close to the general election, and there is greater uncertainty after November.