Bitcoin has largely been trading between $60,000 and $70,000 since March, with April’s much-anticipated halving event seen as “Sell the news,” coupled with a slowdown in ETF inflows over the past few weeks. , the market lacked catalysts, adding to the bearish sentiment. In response, FxPro trader Alex Kuptsikevich said that if Bitcoin (BTC) closes below $60,000 in the next few days, it may trigger panic selling.

Alex Kuptsikevich said:

"A break below $60,000 could trigger a panic sell-off. We believe a positive scenario will prevail if prices can break above $65,000 and stabilize above the 50-day EMA in early May's pullback territory."

Separately, analysts at cryptocurrency investment firm Ryze Labs also said in a weekly report that the behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders (those who hold Bitcoin for less than 155 days) may significantly affect the market in the coming months. Ryze Labs said that looking at past historical records, 94% of long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders have made profits at the same time three times: from mid-November 2017 to mid-April 2017, and from mid-February 2021 to mid-April, and most recently from late February to early April 2024.

Among them, the peak values ​​of Bitcoin held by short-term investors were US$11.78 billion in 2017 and US$28.99 billion in 2021. During these periods, both long-term holders and miners sell Bitcoin to short-term holders with a holding period of less than 155 days.

However, after these peaks, short-term holders' losses mount rapidly, causing the cycle to reverse, with short-term sellers selling Bitcoin to long-term holders. The team observed that this shift has historically typically resulted in significant price declines over the next four to six months.

“During the most recent cycle, short-term holders owned $218.9 billion worth of Bitcoin. While initially most took profits, they began selling aggressively. About a month into this period, starting from the cycle high The maximum price pullback is around -6%. The current cycle may be different from the past, as improving macroeconomic conditions support institutional demand. However, if these supporting factors weaken, Bitcoin prices may experience a pullback similar to past cycles.”

This article Analyst: It is difficult for short-term takers to resist downward pressure. If Bitcoin falls below 60,000 mg, it may trigger a sell-off. It first appeared on Zombit.