The market is repeatedly shaking, how should we deal with it next?
There are 4 scenarios in the future, all of which are determined by the peace talks between Israel and Hamas and the CPI data next Wednesday.
(1) Successful peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 10%
BTC soars back to $70,000, the bull market returns quickly, and everyone is happy
(2) Failed peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 35%
A big drop in the failed peace talks, a rebound in the CPI lower than expected
The positive and negative factors offset each other, BTC fluctuates around $60,000, but the copycats are bleeding and injured
(3) Successful peace talks + CPI higher than expected: probability 35%
In this case, the success of the peace talks is not considered a good thing, it can only be said that it will not fall. If the CPI is higher than expected, it will definitely fall sharply, and BTC will fall to $55,000
(4) Failed peace talks + CPI higher than expected: probability 20%
Both are bad news, and it will fall
BTC falls below $55,000, and the defense is $50,000
After looking at these 4 scenarios, we can conclude that it is more bad than good.
Therefore, lower your expectations, so that you can buy the bottom if it falls. Even if it falls by 1%, you can buy more coins when you buy them back.
Whether it is a contract or spot, the principle is the same.
OpenAI will hold a press conference next Monday. If WLD rises sharply, remember to sell part of it first and put the profit in your pocket!
All the good news will be bad news, and buy it back if it falls later.
For the sake of safety and conservatism, please control your position, reduce your position when it rises, and never hold a full position!