【0513 Market Analysis and Suggestions】1/2
This week, Bao will be the first to appear with CPI data. The currency market is short of liquidity, and the information continues to dominate, which may start a violent short squeeze.
1. Fundamentals
1. Bao will be the first to appear. At 22:00 on Tuesday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and European Central Bank Governing Council member Knott will attend the event and deliver a speech. Judging from Bao's previous dovish speech, Bao may continue to be dovish or Tai Chi.
2. At 20:30 on Wednesday night, the US Department of Commerce will release the April CPI data. The market is optimistic and believes that after three consecutive months of rebound, it will cool down. Last week, US stock funds also saw the first single-week inflow in six weeks.
3. Bao's speech attitude and CPI data will directly affect the market's judgment on the Fed's interest rate cut node, which will trigger a new round of market fluctuations. Whether the "May Poverty Curse" can be broken, this week will be a turning point.
If inflation heats up, panic and short-term diving will come again; after adjusting for 9 weeks, the liquidity of the green market is seriously insufficient, and the probability of a breakout is small.
If inflation cools down, US stocks are close to their recent highs and may rise slightly; the currency market may see a surge and short squeeze.
If it meets expectations, it may fluctuate at a high level; the currency market will continue to consolidate in a weak position.
2. On-chain and off-chain data
1. The liquidity of $BTC is close to freezing point, lower than the circulation below $20,000. The on-chain circulation in the last 24 hours is only about 30,000. The cost is below 60,000 and the chips in the range of 63,000 to 66,000 have basically not changed much
2. Both buyers and sellers are in waiting mode, and the news completely dominates the short-term trend, and the price goes up and down quickly.
