From the annual K-line exchange rate of ETH/BTC:

2018 (negative line) versus 2022 (negative line)

2019 (negative line) versus 2023 (negative line)

2020 (positive line) versus 2024 (temporary negative line, 50% probability of positive line after the annual line closes)

2021 (positive line) versus 2025 (high probability of positive line)

Whether the ETH exchange rate in 2024 can turn from negative to positive directly determines whether there will be altcoin market in 2024!