The economic base determines the superstructure

Most people think that the "communism" in Marx's political economics theory is unrealistic.

The value theory is also controversial. Brother Feng disagrees with it completely.

However, Brother Feng agrees with the conclusion that "the economic base determines the superstructure". From family relationships to international relations, this sentence can be said to be applicable to the whole world.

➤ Family

Women with strong economic ability are less likely to be criticized by their in-laws in the family. Taiwanese transgender host Li Jing married her boyfriend who is 14 years younger, and her in-laws are very accepting of their transgender daughter-in-law. In the interview, Li Jing said, "Maybe it's because I gave my father-in-law a car? My mother-in-law also has a one-carat diamond ring."

In wealthy families, the divorce rate of couples is not necessarily low. But in poor families, the probability of couples quarreling will be higher. Poor couples are sad!

➤International

Back to the point, in the environment of the Fed's high interest rate and shrinking balance sheet, global liquidity is tight (because high interest rates affect the yield of US Treasury bonds, and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is recognized by the world as a risk-free rate), and the global economy is affected. Under the condition of tight global liquidity, international relations are easily affected, including trade wars and wars.

If the Fed starts to cut interest rates in September, the tightening cycle will be relatively short. But if the interest rate is cut in December or even later, the tightening cycle will be longer. Although it is only a short 3 months, these 3 months will increase the probability of a black swan outbreak.

The tighter the liquidity, the easier it is to trigger some international conflicts. This principle is like "poor couples are sad about everything". What's more, in the international arena, due to historical culture or economic interests, some countries and regions not only do not have the love of couples, but even have some enemies...High liquidity tension may intensify various international conflicts.

What's more, the United States is also facing the contradiction between high inflation and economic recession...

The economic base determines the superstructure-the later the interest rate cut, the higher the probability of a black swan. Remember to leave some positions for black swans.