【0511 Market Analysis and Suggestions】1/2
The Fed is intensively hawkish, and the stock market is divided. The stock market took the opportunity to explode with the combination of information and data, and the consolidation volatility continued to increase.
1. Fundamentals
1. On Friday (May 10), the Fed director made the most "hawkish" statement. She expected no interest rate cuts this year. This is the first Fed official who directly ruled out the possibility of a rate cut this year. The speeches of other officials were all hawkish, indicating that there would be no interest rate cuts in the short term.
2. At 22:00 on Friday, data released by the University of Michigan showed that US consumer confidence hit a six-month low in May. Economists are currently unable to understand this data. Inflation expectations for the next year have risen.
3. The stock market is divided into the stock market, and the stock market took the opportunity to explode. On Friday, only the Nasdaq fell slightly among the three major US stock indexes, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for eight consecutive trading days, setting the best single-week performance of the year. Europe is even more betting on rate cuts and a strong earnings season. Major stock indexes hit record highs on Friday, making the largest single-week gain since the end of January. The currency market fell nearly 3,000 points after the data was released at 22:00 on Friday night. At the moment of insufficient liquidity, the explosion of long positions is obvious.
4. The United States will release the PPI and CPI data for April on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, which may become a compass for the expected time of interest rate cuts. The risk market is very sensitive to the data next week and the volatility will increase.
2. Spot ETF trading
1. The net outflow on May 10 was 84.7 million US dollars, which was the second consecutive trading day of net outflow. Correspondingly, there will be about 1,343 $BTC sold after 21:30 next Monday. There was only one net outflow from Grayscale, and three net inflows. The other six showed 0 (no capital flow or small amount).
2. Grayscale's holdings fell to 291,100, and BlackRock increased to 274,600, approaching Grayscale. The turnover of new and old investors in the United States is still ongoing.
