Why Now Is Not the Time to Get Out of Bitcoin
The market is currently going through a downturn, and many people are reducing their positions or are hesitant to enter the market due to bearish sentiment. However, if you look closely, you will find that the current market environment is fundamentally different from the bear market in 2022.
Bullish factors remain
First, Bitcoin has already experienced a halving, and the cost of miners has increased, which in itself sets a natural support for the price of Bitcoin. In addition, considering the costs that many traditional institutions have to bear to buy ETFs, the possibility of Bitcoin prices falling below $50,000 is very small.
The new normal of a bull market
We are currently in a bull market, a slow bull market, which is very different from the fast bull markets in the past. During a slow bull market, the market moves slowly, which is different from the slow bull market of 2015-2017 and the fast bull market of 2020. In addition, there is a clear differentiation between assets in the current bull market, which was not seen in the previous two bull markets.
Complex market environment
The current market environment is becoming increasingly complex, and simply waiting for a big drop is a very dangerous strategy. Based on the above analysis, investors who wait for Bitcoin to fall to $50,000 are likely to miss the opportunity to enter the market. Although history will not simply repeat itself, it is often surprisingly similar. We see that those who were bearish at $15,000 in the past and chased higher at $70,000 may repeat the same mistakes in this round.
Nothing is new in the Bitcoin and crypto markets, only the players are changing. For those who truly understand the market dynamics, now is a time to wait and act cautiously, not a time to exit. The future of the market is full of uncertainties, but for those who are ready to seize the opportunity, every downturn can be a gold mine.
Bitcoin weekly trend analysis
In the current Bitcoin trend, we observe some important technical signals that show that the market is at a critical stage.
Characteristics of the shock zone: Bitcoin price is currently in a downward sloping parallel channel. As the short volume shrinks, it indicates that the short force is gradually weakening.
Long-term trend line support: Prices fell back to the long-term rising trend line, showing that this line still has support effect.
Bollinger Band middle track support: Although the price has fallen back to the Bollinger Band middle track, it has not fallen below it, indicating that the middle track currently provides effective support.
Lower Line Support of Parallel Channel: The lower line of the channel provides additional support for the price.
Hammer line stop loss signal: Last week's hammer line candlestick pattern indicated that the market may begin to stop falling.
Reinforcement of Triple Support: The hammer appears near the triple support level, which enhances its validity.
market expectation
From the current technical analysis, Bitcoin's lower support level is strong, and the short-selling force is gradually fading. Although the price may drop slightly in the short term due to the inertia after the decline, reaching below $60,000, it is unlikely to fall to $50,000 in the long term.
Trading Psychology
In cryptocurrency trading, it is unrealistic to seek perfect buy and sell points. Investors should make decisions based on market conditions and personal risk appetite, rather than pursuing unrealistic perfect trading timing. The market is always full of uncertainty, and understanding and accepting this will help develop a more robust trading strategy.
Overall, the current market conditions of Bitcoin show stable support signals, indicating that the possibility of a large-scale decline is low. Investors should remain vigilant, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The market is likely to be close to a short-term bottom.