Bitcoin is currently following a "slightly downward sloping parallel channel". There are two types of volatile markets. One is the oscillation between the highs and lows of two horizontal straight lines. The other is like this, a downward parallel channel, or an upward parallel channel.
This kind of shock is deceptive because it is easy for investors to compare the market. The previous rebounds did not break the highs and then fell. Each decline would break a new low. It is then easy to compare the previous trends to replicate future trends.
But the first thing we must be clear about is that such a market situation will not always exist. As long as everyone agrees with this point, we can get rid of the dilemma of trying to find a sword in a boat.
If we want to judge in advance whether there will be a big drop in the future or whether the drop has already stopped, then we must see the essence of this picture. The appearance is used to confuse retail investors.
The appearance is that the high and low points are constantly moving downward, which seems to be a downward trend, making people feel that the market may fall sharply at any time.
With each round of decline, the volume is shrinking. After experiencing several rounds of such declines, the volume of short positions has shrunk seriously, indicating that the air force power is weakening. This is the essence.
Especially in the recent round of correction, the volume has become weaker and weaker, and it has come to the lower edge of the oscillation range in the past few days, so we must closely observe whether there will be any reversal signals.
The current clue is that the air force power is gradually weakening. Once a reversal signal appears, it means that the bulls are starting to move, which will break the current trend.
The ups and downs of ETH
Ethereum, Ethereum is following the first oscillating trend, oscillating between two horizontal straight lines.
Ethereum started to fluctuate after a clear decline, which is a completely different trend from Bitcoin.
After the first stop-loss signal appeared on April 14, the market began to fluctuate, and then rebounded within the fluctuation range without breaking the upper edge and ushered in a correction, but did not fall below the lower edge, but instead closed with a "hammer line".
These two times were a test of the lower support. Last week, it rebounded to near the upper edge and then experienced a pullback in the past few days.
Today, the market closed with a large negative line with large volume. Logically speaking, if this large negative line is very effective, then tomorrow's close should continue to fall. On the contrary, if there is no continued effective decline tomorrow, it means that the support below is strong.
Therefore, these days, whether it is Bitcoin or Ethereum, are extremely critical.
However, judging from the market trends of the two, Ethereum is still significantly stronger than Bitcoin.
Ethereum has not fallen below the shock range twice in a row, so the third time is very critical. Once the third reversal signal appears, the final winner of the long and short sides in this shock range will be determined. In the future, the trend of the market is very critical and very important, which determines the future gains.
This is why ETH will rise
While the threat from Solana and other low-fee and scalable platforms, in addition to the U.S. SEC’s concerns, is real, the analyst is optimistic. To allay concerns, the analyst dismissed the Bitcoin second-layer ecosystem as “garbage.” Despite its popularity, the analyst believes it will never be as powerful and useful as Ethereum.
Beyond that, the analyst added that while the SEC’s threat exists, it is unlikely to succeed. Even if it does, powerful political and economic forces like Wall Street will continue to support Ethereum’s growth.
So far, Wall Street players such as BlackRock have expressed interest in issuing a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), boosting confidence.
1. When to buy? What to buy?
And if you are entering this field today, then:
First of all, I still suggest that you spend more time to understand this field, at least to learn about the points that interest you the most. For example, if you are interested in airdrops, then search for more information or tutorials related to airdrops and participate in some basic interactive experiences. If you are interested in financial management/staking, then go to some of the top CEX and DEX to learn about the financial products and rules there. And so on.
Secondly, you can start to plan your positions reasonably and try to invest in spot with a small amount (contracts are not recommended) while learning. Or if you don’t want to think too much, you can just invest in BTC/ETH directly. These two are also the investment portfolio paths that are least likely to go wrong.
2. When to sell? What is your psychological expectation for selling?
Many people say that those who know how to buy are apprentices, and those who know how to sell are masters. From a certain perspective, selling is indeed more difficult than buying. In addition to the above-mentioned people who sell based on news, what are some other common selling references?
The first case: selling based on historical experience (or personal experience)
Let’s take Bitcoin as an example. We have shared a chart before. By comparing the historical trends, we can find that:
If we look at it from a broader perspective, the crypto market is not only cyclical, but also has similar structures in each cycle. For example, there were 511 days between the historical lows in 2018 and 2022 and the halvings in 2020 and 2024. The bear markets in 2018 and 2022 lasted 371 days each. And the first two halvings were followed by a round of corrections. As shown in the figure below.
And if history repeats itself, assuming the structure remains unchanged, this bull market will theoretically peak in 2025.
Of course, historical experience is only a reference dimension, because different cycles will always have different situations, but looking at the current overall market, we also have reason to believe that in the next year, Bitcoin will most likely continue to break through ATH (historical high).
Different people may have different expectations for setting goals based on experience, and the expectation setting also needs to be considered in combination with their own cost situation. For example, if Zhang San's average cost of buying pie is 20,000, and he sets himself an expected goal of 5 times, then this round is likely to be achieved. But if Li Si's average cost of buying pie is 50,000, and he also sets himself an expected goal of 5 times, this may not be so easy to achieve (at least in this round of bull market).
Each sector will be active in turn. Which coins do you think are likely to increase 5 to 10 times?
1. AI sector, including ARKM, AR, RNDR, FET, AGIX, NEAR, LPT, NFP, WLD
2. Meme section, such as BONK, WIF, PEPE, FLOKI, BOME
3. SOL ecosystem, including SOL, JUP, RAY, and JTO
4. Ondo in the RWA sector
5. ETH ecosystem, including ETHFI and SSV
6. BTC’s second-layer network STX
7. Game finance sector, such as YGG, GALA, MAVIA, IMX
8. Public chain sector, including DOT, FTM, MATIC, SUI, SEI, APT
9. Halving section, ETC and LTC
My friends, which sectors do you think have the most potential currencies?
If you feel helpless, confused, and can’t see the direction in trading right now, you can click on my avatar or the link at the end of the article, and we can make progress together!Boil leaves---
#eth二饼
