The plunge at over 72,000 was mainly due to a series of uncertainties in the market at the time, such as the black swan event before the 2020 halving, the outbreak of the global epidemic, and the circuit breaker of the U.S. stock market. These events together led to a historic plunge in the price of Bitcoin.
The current environment is different from the past. BTC has hit a new high before the halving, and spot ETFs have been approved. The average holding price of institutional investors such as BlackRock is 55,000, and ETFs are usually held for a long time. The outflow of ETFs in this wave of correction is relatively small. In addition, BTC ETFs are being launched all over the world, and the shutdown price of Bitcoin mining machines is more than 56,000 (new ones are more than 40,000). The interest rate hike is basically over, and now we are just waiting for the shoe of interest rate cut to land. At the same time, factors such as the US election in November 2024 and elections in more than 70 countries/regions around the world are also having an impact at the macro level.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is not in a top-staying pattern at present. The weekly line has multiple pins and the bottom is still supported, and the daily MA120, as a short-term bull-bear market judgment line, has not been broken. The weekly line touched the BOLL rebound for the first time, which is different from the previous break below the middle track before 519. At this stage, there are not too many signals, so we don’t need to worry too much.
These factors combined indicate that in the current market environment, opportunities for investment products such as bitcoin and other commodities are still relatively good, especially when U.S. stocks have retreated after hitting new highs, the U.S. dollar index has rebounded but not yet recovered, and the technical side is relatively stable.
After falling to 60630, the price rebounded, and the bottom of the box was supported again, while breaking through the 4-hour descending wedge structure. Yesterday's price trend also showed similar characteristics, that is, it rebounded after breaking down. This further emphasizes the strength of the current support level. If it falls again, we will look to the MA120 near 58000 for rebound support.
In the process of rebounding upward, it faces heavy pressure, which are located near 63700, 66500 and 67300. My personal opinion is that the market will continue to experience a period of consolidation, which is expected to last until the end of May or early June, and then there may be a new market outbreak. Therefore, we need to wait patiently and continue to pay attention to the development of the market.
Ethereum's recent price has not fluctuated significantly around 3,000, but on the 4-hour chart, the price has touched 2,936 three times and showed signs of rebound. At the same time, a descending wedge structure has also appeared, breaking down and then recovering. Personally, I suggest that you consider establishing an initial position at this position. In addition, there is internal information that when the price of Bitcoin reached 57,000, the price of Ethereum also appeared at more than 2,800. Therefore, it is recommended that prudent operators wait for the downward trend to be broken before entering the market.
If you can’t grasp the market, please follow Uncle Yang, a KOL who will take you through the bull and bear markets of the crypto market. Daily market change analysis, bull market deployment reference suggestions, contract spot passwords, all shared in the community!