"Bitcoin halving: Why is the price falling instead of rising? In-depth analysis of future trends"
Good news turns into bad news: The positive effect of halving was digested by the market in advance. After the expectations were realized, the market makers rushed to sell their stocks to make a profit.
Uncertainty after all-time highs: Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide more motivation for short sellers.
Impact of the U.S. stock market correction: The U.S. stock market generally corrected in April, which led to low market sentiment and also had a drag effect on Bitcoin.
Cycle stage: The current stage is equivalent to the start of the bottom. The entire cycle is still in its early stages and the market has not yet entered the stage of comprehensive rise.
Can Bitcoin price break through the $100,000 mark in 2024?
Institutional investors have driven Bitcoin back up, with prices rebounding after bottoming out, although they have experienced some volatility after the halving.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high before the halving, but then the price fell sharply. This decline may be related to overall market factors and confidence.
However, some institutional investors remain firm in their attitude towards Bitcoin and show interest. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs provides a way for more institutional investors to participate in the Bitcoin market. Although the price of Bitcoin has not fully recovered, some factors have caused funds to begin to flow back, driving up the price of Bitcoin.
It may take some time to achieve the expected $100,000. Some people worry that institutional investment may threaten Bitcoin's decentralized vision, but the Bitcoin community remains full of innovators and developers who remain confident in Bitcoin's future.
When will interest rates be cut?
Core ideas:
Rate cut path: Although there is still a possibility of rate cuts within this year, this move must be based on the premise of tightening financial conditions. Therefore, the Fed needs to maintain a tightening stance for a certain period of time.
At present, every release of new important economic data or speech by Federal Reserve officials may cause market disturbances, which shows that the market has not yet reached a consensus on expectations for future liquidity.
To avoid this noise, we can focus on just three main indicators:
Economic growth rate (GDP)
Price level (CPI, PCE)
Employment situation (unemployment rate, etc.)
At the same time, we need to patiently wait for clear changes in these indicators:
That is, if the economic growth rate is indeed declining, or the price level is clearly falling, or the employment situation continues to deteriorate, then if two of them meet the requirements for a rate cut, the market is likely to quickly reach a consensus on future liquidity, and a rate cut will become a reality.
Geopolitical factors:
Geopolitical factors, such as the situation in the Middle East and the Russian-Ukrainian war, are usually indirect and complex, and may affect the market from multiple angles. For example, changes in risk aversion may affect commodity prices, which in turn may affect price levels. This factor is often difficult to analyze accurately because unexpected events may occur and are difficult to predict. Its logic may also change at any time, and the analysis needs to be adjusted at any time. At present, the impact of this factor is very unclear and is a potential risk point in the market.
other factors:
There are other factors that may also affect the market, such as changes in national policies regarding cryptocurrencies. These policy changes may lead to changes in participants in the cryptocurrency market, thereby triggering inflows or outflows of funds.
For example, the launch of a Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. and a Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF in Hong Kong could have an impact on the market. Another example is the total ban on cryptocurrencies in mainland China a few years ago.
At present, the launch of the Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETF has limited impact on the market. It can be likened to building a new reservoir, but if there is no water flowing into it, the impact may not be significant.
Overall, the short-term market is still in uncertainty and the possibility of decline still exists.
Important factors to watch in the future include US economic data, such as GDP, CPI and unemployment rate, as well as changes in the situation in the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine. At present, we still need to wait patiently for these situations to become clearer.
Anyone noticed something interesting? Altcoins are moving as much as Bitcoin, or even less?
Generally speaking, when Bitcoin drops one point, altcoins will drop at least 3 points, but now it has remained almost stable. What does this mean? This question deserves our serious consideration.
After experiencing two consecutive rounds of drastic adjustments, altcoins have almost reached a point where it is difficult to fall further. Unless Bitcoin experiences a new round of plunge, such as falling to the $52,000 range, it is difficult for altcoins to fall sharply again.
Considering the stability of altcoins, altcoins may see a retaliatory rebound in the future. This is a phenomenon worthy of attention.
