24/05/09 In the battle for the US dollar currency, BTC once again hits the bottom of the box. Interest rate cuts and elections are not far away. Is it the darkness before dawn?
The battle for the US dollar currency, has the global currency war begun?
The interest rate hike started in March 2022 and reached 5.5% in July 2023. After that, the interest rate remained unchanged for six consecutive meetings, and the speed of asset and liability reduction was slowed down from June. There is still no clear time for interest rate cuts. In history, the Fed has used the US dollar tide to reap the world in seven rounds of interest rate hikes. The market expects the first interest rate cut in September and one in December. The US dollar index is very critical in the next two days. If it continues to rise and return to the platform, the pie will fall. If the rebound is under pressure, the pie will have the momentum to rebound.
2024 is a big year for global elections. According to incomplete statistics, 76 countries and regions around the world will hold general elections. The presidential election in the United States in November is even more noteworthy. It is basically a contest between the current President Biden and the former President Trump. The two have formulated strategies for the prospect of winning. Trump said that he would stop the hostility of the United States to cryptocurrency and accept it. Crypto-related PACs have raised $102 million for the US election, with Coinbase and Ripple Labs as the main supporters.
No matter the supporters, they need to burn money. There is less than half a year before the election. If Bitcoin continues to fall to 50,000 or even 40,000, the adjustment period will be extended. For reference, it will take at least 2-3 months to adjust after the fall on May 19. Coinbase and Ripple Labs, including other BN, Kraken, etc., you should know that FTX founder SBF donated 39.2 million US dollars in the US mid-term elections and ranked fifth. There was also a surge in trading volume in the later period, becoming the second largest exchange. Everyone knows about the thunderstorm later. So do you think they will support with their own wealth, or support with profit? (Personal opinion) Different people have different opinions. Welcome to discuss.
Flatbread
If the rebound cannot withstand the pressure, it will pull back. It fell to 60,888 in the morning and the four-hour descending wedge broke through the rebound and could not be recovered. The support below is 59,600-60,600. If it loses again, it will have to fall back to MA120 (58,000-68,600).
The daily line fell below MA20 and was bearish, the MACD fast and slow lines crossed underwater, and the OBV indicator fell below the yellow line again, with no volume falling. The 4-hour line fell below the Fibonacci 0.382 and could not be recovered. The next level is 0.236 (59600-60473). If it falls again, it will be around 58000. The risks are increasing and it is necessary to operate with caution.
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ether
If the market is weak and falls below 2800 for two consecutive days below MA120, it will fall to 2500-2600 again. The daily line is near Fibonacci 0.618. Although it has not bottomed out yet, I personally think it is not far from the bottom. There is 519 in May and there are still 10 days left. The market is still quite fearful. Good opportunities will have to wait until the end of this month or the beginning of next month.
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