I haven't updated my daily views in recent months. First, I misjudged a wave of market trends (I ran away too early at the end of 2023, at the end of December, and then re-entered the market in January 2024); second, there are indeed many things to deal with, and the ownership of the Binance Square account was taken away by someone, plus I am a bit lazy, so I stopped updating for so long. This is not right. No matter how busy I am in the future, I still have to keep updating the daily view, which also helps my investment research system to iterate. A few points:
1. Why did I run too early at the end of December 2023? I made the conclusion based on several events: 1. It was because Bitcoin had 4 consecutive positive days at that time (if it was not a big bull market, 5 consecutive positive days were rare, and the overall growth of the cottage industry was also good; 2. It was because at the end of the year, I thought there was a need to lock in profits; 3. Before the halving, it could only support one wave of small bulls. Therefore, I decided to lock in profits at that time. But as you can see from the subsequent market conditions, I made a wrong judgment (I rarely make wrong judgments on macro market conditions, but why was I wrong this time? Because I underestimated the volume of the ETF and extended the life of the small bull market by 2-3 months). In fact, I am not the only one who made a similar mistake as me. The CEO of BITMEX also made the same judgment as me, so they were all wrong.
2. How do you view this wave of decline? First of all, let me say the conclusion. I think this wave of adjustment is very necessary and beneficial. It has not ended in terms of time, but it is hard to say in terms of space. Why is adjustment necessary? If the bull continues to rise without adjustment, the life of the bull will be greatly shortened, and your income will be reduced accordingly. Secondly, if there is only an increase without a decrease, everyone will make money, and the difficulty will be greatly reduced. This may be possible during the period of wild growth, but now it is a trading market with hundreds of millions of traders, which is obviously impossible.
3. Recent operation strategies and optimistic sectors. I think there is a 90% probability that the next trend will be sideways or negative, and a 10% possibility that it will go bullish. Therefore, for spot traders, I think holding on is the best strategy. If you really want to buy, it is a good choice to use a small position to sell high and buy low.
4. Analysis of daily hot currencies. Today's rising FTT TRB FRONT LUNA and other currencies are all pure demon currencies dominated by the capital side. This type of currency likes to make trouble when the market is not good. I think it is impossible to judge this type of currency. The currency on the capital side cannot be analyzed by fundamental and technical methods. PASS
Finally, let me talk about my views on the current crypto market: Since the beginning of this year, many projects with very large market capitalizations have been launched on the exchanges, which have sucked away a lot of retail investors’ funds. I personally think this is not very good: 1. Because there are more projects and the entire pool has only so much money, the funds for each project will become less, and thus the money-making effect will become smaller (such as our cancer stocks); 2. Because these projects have huge market capitalizations as soon as they go online, plus huge amounts of unlocking in the later stages, retail investors have been cut off from everything (I believe that most retail investors have lost all their profits or even suffered losses in this wave of declines), and the attraction of new traffic will also be greatly reduced in the future (because the money-making effect has weakened). Therefore, I still recommend that major exchanges strictly control the number of listed coins, otherwise this market will become more and more difficult to play.
As I mentioned above, I sometimes make mistakes in macroeconomics, so all my sharing is just my personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.