Although today's data shows that it is Monday, for those investors whose activity peaks during the main US time, they are still on holiday. It can be seen that even on the first working day, the flow of BTC on the chain is extremely limited. This is when the data I obtained is two hours after the opening, and there is still some activity. If it is all weekend data, the situation may be worse.
This is also the reason why I have been emphasizing that the current liquidity on the chain is indeed very similar to the situation in the bear market. Of course, I think some friends may not read the article carefully enough, and think that I am bearish when they see the word bear market. In fact, there is no need to think so.
Liquidity in a bear market means that more investors are indifferent to the current price. Only a very small number of short-term holders and short-term operators, such as those who are quantitative, will actively carry out turnover operations. And those who have been holding positions for a long time, those who have made profits and losses, have almost no impulse to change hands, which can also be clearly reflected in the data.
From the data of the last 24 hours, it can be seen that investors with holding costs below $56,000 and above $67,000 still have no obvious turnover trend. These two parts represent the profit and loss of earlier positions. The lack of obvious turnover of these chips indicates that most investors are indifferent to the current price.
This is not just a casual talk. At least we can see that there is no obvious difference from $56,000 to the current $64,000. The short-term investors are still the ones who really participate in the turnover every day. Even if BTC reaches $56,000, these investors have no intention of increasing turnover. What these investors are looking forward to is probably the "real" bull market brought about by the halving cycle, so they are unwilling to give up their chips too early.
Especially in the current situation where macro sentiment is still stable, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased from once in 2024 to twice, which has provided a certain emotional boost in the market with low liquidity. However, how long this positive sentiment can last depends on the macro data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve in the coming week. The most critical data this week should be the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May and the one-year inflation rate forecast released on Friday.
Other data should be interpreted in combination with liquidity, macro sentiment and on-chain data. After a weekend, although the selling pressure did not continue to rise, the stock of BTC on the exchange was 17,000 higher, and there is no obvious sign of reduction. From a more detailed data point of view, nearly 1,800 BTC were transferred to the exchange before the opening of the US stock market today, and now only about 1,000 BTC have been transferred out. The rest depends on whether it can be digested around 4 am.
