The current probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is only about 8.9%. The market believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates so quickly in the short term, but there will be a CPI data next week. If it records a decline, then expectations will change. Rate cuts are pro-cyclical, and even the Fed cannot reverse them. Judging from the current situation, the European Central Bank may take the lead in cutting interest rates (previously leaked a June cut). It is conceivable that once the major central banks in the world start the rate cut cycle, the huge amount of money printed will buy up high-quality targets around the world, corresponding to a sharp rise in prices. The big cake has proved this with continuous new highs in the past 10 years. Although there are still uncertainties in the short term, in the long run, the macro level will definitely warm up (rate cuts), it is a matter of time.

Ming Ge's view on this week is that the market will fluctuate, because there is no decisive data to be released this week. There is a high probability that a direction will appear next week. Once CPI records a decline, the expectation of interest rate cuts will change. This may be an important turning point for the market to recover. The previous decline was sufficient in terms of adjustment time and decline. Many high-quality cottages have also fallen out of value. In the second half of the bull market, the exchange rate of Bitcoin will go down all the way, while cottages will go up all the way, if human nature remains unchanged. #美联储何时降息？ #5月市场关键事件