Hello, brothers. This is Risk No. 1. The content I want to share with you today will be displayed below. If you think this analysis is useful, I suggest you pay attention to it. I currently only post on the square and do not have any other off-site information:
As of the time of posting this article, the current price of Bitcoin has reached a maximum of $65,500, which is nearly $2,000 higher than before the posting yesterday. The daily line is currently in a positive state, but the K-line looks uncomfortable. It depends on whether the BTC ETF of institutions such as Grayscale and BlackRock will have a net inflow or outflow at 10 o'clock in the evening.
The current price of Bitcoin is still 3,300 points away from the upper daily line of 67,445. I am optimistic that it will definitely reach the upper daily line. As for the upper three-day line of 73,609, it depends on the operations of institutions such as Grayscale and BlackRock. At present, my overall position is in a wait-and-see state, but for some currencies with excessive gains, I have taken a 30% profit-taking operation. It is recommended that brothers who have successfully bottomed out at a low price combine their own judgment, analyze the pressure position and take profit operations after reaching it.
Total inflows of US ETFs yesterday
Due to the weekend, the inflow amount of BTC US ETF yesterday was 0.
Bitcoin Liquidation Map (Content from coinglass)
The current Bitcoin price is 63672U, which is nearly $1,000 higher than when the article was published yesterday. There was a liquidation of $565 million at 62365 and a liquidation of $553 million at 66666. Both long and short positions have increased their strength. There are still more long positions at the 7-day level, and more short positions at the 30-day level. You can focus on the position of 72213, which has a liquidation of nearly $3.6 billion and is also close to the upper track of the 3-day line.
Look at the long-short ratio of BTC holders on Binance
1.25, it rose from yesterday's 1.12 to 1.25, which can be understood as the number of people chasing the long position has increased.
In a bull market, the long-short ratio should be above 2, preferably above 2.5 and below 0.7 when opening an order. At the same time, remember not to go all in, which can effectively prevent a second exploration.
Check funding rate
Forward 10: basically all are 0.01%, among which ONDO has the highest funding rate of 0.0121%, which is half of yesterday.
Reverse top 10: below -0.0237%, the highest is ONG at -0.1027%. Compared with yesterday's GLM funding rate of -0.6%, today's funding rate is relatively high.
See the current displayed U price
7.27, it fell by 2 points compared to yesterday, and it also fell by two points the day before yesterday.
Generally, when U rises, the coin falls, and when U falls, the coin rises. At the same time, when the market plummets, the price of U will also rise sharply. Friends who are pessimistic about the market can consider buying U in advance to reduce risks.
Determining the US Dollar Index Price
104.92, yesterday was 105.05
A high dollar index means buying. Buy or add to your position when it is 107, it is best not to sell
A low dollar index means you should sell. It is better to go short or sell when it is 100 than to buy
View Grayscale's stock increase
Yesterday was a weekend, so Grayscale's holdings remained basically unchanged.
Added positions within one month: BAT MANA XLM FIL LINK LTC BHC SOL
AHR-999 Coin Index
The current value is 1.2929 and yesterday it was 1.2720, up 0.2.
For those who are looking to make long-term value investments, the current index means that buying at this time is relatively risky.
Price > 1.2: Indicates that the price of Bitcoin is rising in a bull market. At this time, the entry pressure is high and there is a higher chance of being trapped.
0.45 < price < 1.2: This indicates that the average investment cost of Bitcoin is in a reasonable range and is suitable for consideration of fixed investment.
Price < 0.45: It means that the price of Bitcoin is undervalued. It is a bottoming range with relatively high certainty, which is suitable for considering bottom fishing.
Today's Thoughts
Today's highest point reached 65,500, which was unexpected. From the K-line, I think such a sharp rise is suspicious of running away, especially when ETFs in the United States have not yet been traded. This trend makes people feel panic, but the liquidation map shows that there are more than 3.6 billion US dollars of liquidation near the upper track of the three-day line. This is a big piece of fat meat, how can we not eat it. Therefore, the market is especially difficult to judge, and I can only settle for the second best and manage my positions.
