Analysts told RBC-Crypto what will happen to Bitcoin from April 6 to May 12
Experts analyzed the market situation and explained how it could change in the coming week.
On Sunday, May 5, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $63.8 thousand, its price returned to the level of the end of last week. Experts analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for Bitcoin exchange rate movements over the next seven days.
“There is another positive signal”
BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov
Between April 29 and May 5, Bitcoin showed high volatility, experiencing a serious drop at the beginning of the week, but recouping all losses by the end of the week.
On April 30, the BTC/USDT pair fell 5% to $60,672, forming a bearish engulfing on the monthly chart. On May 1, Bitcoin hit a low of $56,552, down 9% in two trading days.
The main factors for the decline were the sluggish launch of new cryptocurrency ETFs in Hong Kong, the increase in liquidations of long positions, the dollar rally, risk aversion in stock markets before the Fed meeting, as well as the activity of whale sellers on Ethereum. After the Fed's announcements on May 1, Bitcoin did not show a significant reaction. A turning point was the publication of labor market data in the United States on May 3, which indicated moderate employment growth with low unemployment. This reduced market fears about the Fed tightening policy and provoked a rise in Bitcoin against the backdrop of a fall in the dollar index and a rally in stock indices.
The market is now expecting a rate cut in September instead of November. Two cuts of 0.25% are expected in 2024, up from one cut before the jobs data was released. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 67.4% compared to 57.3% on April 26.
Buyers were able to break through to the $63,000 level by the close of the day, reducing bearish pressure. According to Coinglass, $131 million worth of short positions on BTC were liquidated during the growth. In order for new buyers who were thrown out earlier during the fall to begin connecting, the price needs to close above $65,500.
The weekly candle has a small bullish body and a long lower shadow—a signal for continued growth. Do not forget that the price has been trading sideways since mid-March and may remain there for about a month before starting a new rally with the goal of updating the all-time high.
There is another positive signal for buyers. Trading on May 4 ended above $63,000; a false breakout of the trend line from the low of $38,555, which was broken on April 30, was recorded. BitRiver forecasts that while the price is trading below $67,000, the target for sellers will remain in the $50,500-$52,000 zone.
“It’s bad for people, it’s good for the market”
Professional crypto trader Boris Zabavnikov
Despite the negative news background in the cryptosphere, Bitcoin showed upward dynamics on Friday. This is mainly due to the release of unemployment data in the US, which spurred the growth of the stock market. What's the logic? Unemployment has increased, employment has decreased. If unemployment has increased, then companies do not have the money to pay wages and hire more people. If there is no money, then inflation seems to be decreasing. And this already means it’s time to soften policy and lower the key rate. “It’s bad for people, it’s good for the market.”
It is worth noting, however, that most altcoins have not supported BTC’s rise and continue to look weak. On Saturday, May 4, Bitcoin continued to strengthen, while altcoins mostly stood still, only memcoins grew in price. The ETH/BTC pair, which began to grow as Bitcoin fell against the dollar in the middle of the week, again stopped showing strength.
All these factors indicate a fairly high degree of uncertainty in forecasting market movements next week. At the moment, I’m waiting for the weekly candle on Bitcoin to close, but I think that with the existing price action, the price is likely to go higher. It would be optimal to close the weekly candle above $62,000. When the rate goes below $60,000, the structure becomes bearish again. Interesting pick-up points for BTC on a local correction for me now lie at the levels of $62,300 and $60,800.
As for altcoins, there is no great desire to buy them on “expectations of growth” at current levels. This year's local rallies have demonstrated time and time again that it is safer to buy "strength and trend" rather than growth expectations. I would like to see the strengthening of the ETH/BTC pair and an injection of liquidity into altcoins, and in this case take the market leaders. Everything I wanted to buy in the medium or long term on the spot, I bought at the market on April 13-14. It is better to take something else either above or below the current trading range.