Bitcoin rose to $64,500 on May 4, marking a significant recovery from local lows created in early May.
Market fluctuations
Data from TradingView confirmed the spike based on positive US jobs data and signs of recovery in the cryptocurrency market, especially the first inflow into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in nearly three months. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin prices increased 5% during the month, in stark contrast to the 15% drop in April.
On Twitter, famous analyst Daan Crypto Trades shared: “There was a big bump when the market closed yesterday.” He added, “I like to watch the charts on the higher time frames, so I will be patient and won't start buying just because it's green this weekend. We should wait and see how things play out.”
This weekend, the market had unexpected developments. There is a notable difference between the price of Bitcoin in the spot market and the closing price of CME Group's Bitcoin futures contract, suggesting a “gap” that tends to be filled later.
Source: Daan Crypto
Two scenarios for pricing
However, some market watchers are skeptical about the strength of the rally, pointing to a lack of participation from traditional finance (TradFi). Keith Alan from Material Indicators commented on the fragility of the market due to thin liquidity in the order book. According to him, “Bitcoin needs more bid liquidity to sustain this rally,” while warning that “it won't take much to trigger a sell-off through this thin liquidity.”
Source: Keith Alan
Credible Crypto, another prominent voice, notes that market setup can favor short sellers under certain conditions. “If BTC sustains below key resistance around $69,000, shorting could be a good strategy,” he mentioned in a post, sharing a chart predicting two potential paths for the price Bitcoin.
“The ideal path is for BTC to hold gains and move towards major resistance. That allowed me to set up sell orders on several altcoins. The less ideal path is that this increase in BTC will soon be erased and I miss the Shorts I was looking at,” he explained.
Source: Credible Crypto
Credible Crypto also points out that a buying opportunity could arise if Bitcoin falls below $56,000, suggesting a strategy to take advantage of potential price drops.
Institutional Involvement in Bitcoin
The continued filing of 13F reports is shedding light on institutional interest in a Bitcoin ETF. Institutions managing more than $100 million must disclose their stock holdings quarterly, and these reports have shown varying levels of participation.
BNY Mellon reports owning nearly 20,000 IBIT shares and about 7,000 GBTC shares. In contrast, BNP Paribas holds about 1,000 IBIT shares, suggesting a more cautious view.
More aggressive positions are seen in smaller companies. Pittsburgh-based Quattro Advisors owns 468,200 shares of BlackRock's ETF, while Legacy Wealth Management disclosed ownership of more than 350,000 shares of Fidelity's ETF. One significant stakeholder is Yong Rong, which holds more than one million shares of BlackRock's ETF, making it a significant part of its investment portfolio.
Source: Eric Balchunas
Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas highlighted that Yong Rong is among a handful of Hong Kong asset managers heavily invested in Bitcoin ETFs, including Fidelity, Grayscale and Bitwise, along with IBIT.
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