Last night's non-agricultural data and unemployment rate showed a big surprise, which gave the lingering market a breath of fresh air in time. It seems that it can struggle for a few more days.
The emergence of this set of data has led to the resurrection of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the currency circle has ushered in a substantial rebound.
Are there any risks next? What do you think about the market?
First of all, this decline and correction is extremely beneficial to the currency circle. The price hit the 120-day moving average and temporarily stopped falling, clearing a wave of profit-taking. It is likely to be the bottom in the near future, and continue to build a solid bottom for the currency circle
Pulling those who bought in the past three months to the same starting line, reducing risks, and is conducive to further increases. What we have to do is:
1. For the previously deeply trapped currencies, as long as they are the leaders of each track or value coins, hold them patiently in the future, and don't worry about whether they can be untied. As long as the bull market does not end, there is no problem in turning 3-5 times at least in the entire cycle.
There is also room for 10-20 times for leading coins with higher cost performance. The terrible thing is that when the market comes, you have no position. If you are a trading expert, you can roll over during this period to reduce costs, and you can get out of the trap immediately when the market comes.
2. Use the remaining bullets to ambush the strong rebound sectors, such as meme, Depin, etc.
It is gratifying that the Bitcoin spot ETF has its first net inflow after ending the net outflow in the past 7 days, with a cumulative net inflow of US$11.561 billion. According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (May 3, Eastern Time), the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was US$378 million, of which: Grayscale ETF GBTC had a net inflow of US$63.0112 million in a single day, and the current historical net outflow of GBTC is US$17.462 billion; the Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net inflow in a single day is Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a net inflow of US$103 million in a single day
Currently, the total historical net inflow of FBTC has reached US$8.03 billion; as of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETF is US$51.021 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value to the total market value of Bitcoin) is 4.12%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached 11.561 billion US dollars.
Next, there is another thing to look forward to: the Ethereum US ETF is approved. Once it is approved, it will usher in the golden age of altcoins. For example, the direct effect of the Hong Kong Ethereum ETF is that Sun Ge and other Chinese big players are trying to buy the bottom. It is expected that the price of ETH will exceed 10,000 US dollars in one year, and the currency circle will make a big comeback!
But after all, it is a time of trouble, and there are three black swans that must be guarded against.
1. Beware of the return of inflation data. After the release of last night's data, we will look at May 15: April CPI data, May 31: April core PCE. If the data is still higher than expected, the currency circle will fall again.
2. Beware of the expansion of the war between Israel and Iran.
Israel may attack Rafah (Hamas' last base in Gaza) in May to expand the conflict with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. At present, Israel and Iran are in a state of war, and this war will continue. As long as the two sides continue to clash, the operating logic of the conflict will tend to escalate. Since ancient times, politicians have tended to detonate wars in order to increase political survival and support.
It's ridiculous to say that the fate of mankind is actually concentrated in the hands of dozens of politicians.
Some lunatics click the nuclear button, and the Third World War begins. Iran is getting closer and closer to making nuclear bombs, and Israel may take preemptive action against Iran's nuclear program. Once the war starts, BTC will still lead to a sharp drop in the currency circle.
3. Beware of Mentougou releasing massive amounts of BTC.
After Mentougou went bankrupt, $9 billion worth of BTC had to be paid to these creditors. The deadline was October. In April, some people said they received legal currency compensation. Therefore, it is highly likely that the compensation will be completed this year. These people will most likely sell the coins they received. Regardless of whether they sell or not, the market will definitely fall if they panic. Therefore, with the rebound, especially those who are fully invested, they can withdraw their bullets in batches to prevent the black swan from attacking.
