How do you view the current market situation and what should you do?
First of all, we must make it clear that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in Q3 and Q4 on the macro level. We will not make a detailed analysis of the details (China has already started to release money, and Europe will be the fastest in the middle of the year).
USDC is a safe-haven option for ordinary people around the world, and it is superimposed on the path of RWA US bonds. Stablecoin + BTC is a new path for Wall Street's global financial strategy. Although the proportion of BTC ETFs allocated by traditional asset management institutions is not high, generally accounting for 1%-3%, more and more asset management companies attach importance to BTC ETF as one of the options for asset allocation diversification.
The trend of the United States' compliance financialization of BTC ETF will allow all countries with dollar swap agreements (15 countries) to gradually open up BTC ETF + US dollar stablecoin + RWA US Treasury bonds, which is an important step in the digital dollar strategy.
Don’t hand over your cheap spot chips at this moment. The big players (BTC wallet > 1000 BTC) on-chain addresses are still buying!
I will give a unified response here: I am still optimistic about the future BTC 100,000 dollars! So I will buy at the bottom in the future! There are still 5 core directions: AI, DEPIN, RWA, GAMEFI, SOL ecology.
Reminder: Do not touch the contract, do not add leverage, and do not borrow money to trade cryptocurrencies, remember!
Where is the bottom of the current market trend?
Because it has fallen below the strong support of 59,000, there is almost no obstacle between it and 52,000.
Through Fibonacci, we can see that 0.618 and the position of 60000 have been broken. The next is the position of 0.5, which is 56000.
However, the possibility of breaking this position is very high. The only strong support is 0.382 below, which is the strong support of 52,000.
If an extreme black swan situation occurs and this position is broken, it will be very scary, meaning that all the gains in this round of Bitcoin will have to start all over again, and it will take at least 1 to 2 months for the market to find its fulcrum again.
However, the possibility of this happening is very low, so we should not worry too much. There is one indicator that everyone should pay attention to, and that is the amount of funds. To determine whether it is a bull market or a bear market, there is a very critical indicator: the amount of funds.
If a large amount of funds flow out of the cryptocurrency circle, then the cryptocurrency circle will be very dangerous. However, this is not the case now. Funds are still flowing in, and the market is falling. A divergence has occurred. Generally speaking, this position is a good entry opportunity in the big cycle. Many people are worried that the bear market will start at this point. From the perspective of the amount of funds, it is almost impossible. Perhaps the golden pit we have been thinking about has appeared.
When others panic, we should stay calm.
You and I are both in great pain now, so it's best for everyone to curl up their wings and protect themselves well. Don't release all kinds of negative fear emotions everywhere every day and affect others. Just hold on to the spot goods. All your losses now are paper losses. If you believe that Bitcoin will reach 100,000, you will never lose money as long as you can hold on to it.
About the outbreak period of altcoins:
The outbreak of altcoins requires sufficient liquidity, and the release of liquidity requires several factors. For example, the altcoin season in 2021 is an unprecedented release of liquidity. Then a large amount of funds will overflow into ALT (altcoin) after making profits in BTC or other mainstream markets, which will lead to the arrival of the altcoin season.
Therefore, the outbreak of altcoins usually comes after BTC, but at least this time, although the first batch of increases came from BTC, there was no large amount of overflow funds. Although the current decline is fierce, in fact, a large number of sell-offs came from loss-making investors. Not to mention overflow funds, even the principal is not guaranteed, so how can there be altcoin season?
But when it comes to the US election, there is actually a release of liquidity. This release is actually on an overall scale, and it is even a good opportunity for copycats.
The future is still bright, with only two expected events yet to be achieved:
Since last year, the crypto market has had many expected events that affect market trends, including the US Bitcoin spot ETF, the Fed's interest rate cut, the FTX incident, the SEC and Binance dispute, the US Ethereum spot ETF, and the halving cycle. As of now, there are two major uncertain events: the US Ethereum spot ETF and the Fed's interest rate cut.
The US Ethereum spot ETF will face its first fund approval deadline on May 23, which may determine the current market trend. However, the market is not optimistic about this. Many institutions and SEC insiders have revealed that the Ethereum spot ETF will not be approved on May 23, so there may be a new round of market changes around May 23.
In addition, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was also mentioned in the previous article. The current US inflation rate is still facing signs of rebound. Although many Wall Street institutions have indicated that the interest rate cut will come in July, judging from the current situation, the possibility of a rate cut this year will continue to decrease.
In addition to the above two expectations, Hong Kong Bitcoin Spot ETF and Ethereum Spot ETF may become potential factors affecting the market trend. Although the trading volume on the first day is not outstanding, the ETF coverage in Hong Kong will include countries and regions in the Asian time zone such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and may become a new source of capital inflow in the crypto world. But the expectation still exists.
In general, the future market trend is still in an overall upward trend, but there are uncertainties in the expected results.
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