Now the big cake is moving sideways, while the copycat stocks are falling.
A long time ago, we saw the inflation of copycat projects. From 2021 to today, mainstream copycat projects have added hundreds of projects every year. These projects are characterized by high valuations and low circulation.
High valuation, low circulation, plus linear unlocking, slowly in the process of the bull market, the market makers transferred their chips to retail investors.
But no one can resist the process of these copycats raising their prices, so even though they know there are tigers in the mountains, they still have to go there.
It's just like smoking.
In an article at the beginning of March, it was analyzed that Bitcoin will break 100,000 this time. This is basically undisputed and there is no risk. However, the risk of copycats lies in inflation.
The so-called inflation means that more and more projects come out, and the prices are inflated, which leads to the overall inflated market. It is difficult to see a surge across the board like in 2021, or even 2017-2018.
In the article on January 16, the "distributed" bull market was mentioned, which took into account the "inflation" of copycats.
The distributed bull market is characterized by stops and starts, and sector rotation.
To deal with this kind of trading, retail investors need to pay attention to the following: continue to reduce their positions when prices rise, and it is ok to reduce 10-20% of the currency base each time. Don't expect to sell all at once after a sharp rise. Basically, the possibility of this is relatively small.
For example, last month it was AI and MEME, this month it was runes, next month it will be refining, and the month after that it will be inscriptions. You have to buy in advance (when there is a big drop), and sell in batches, because no one knows which one will rise first.
The big cake is going sideways, the copycats are being slaughtered, and in the falling market, the cleansing of a single copycat has lasted for a month and a half.
But there is a consensus: the bull market will not end, and there will inevitably be a big rise before the interest rate cut.
Before a rate cut, a few things happen:
1. The US dollar index fell and the price of stablecoins fell back to below 7.
2. Bitcoin breaks new highs, hitting 8-10.
3. The SOL sector will continue to be hyped.
4. Bitcoin L2 and BRC20 can still be expected to be listed on Coinbase. The current wash-out can be seen as a similar control before Bandi was installed.
5. Ethereum exchange rate bottomed out and rebounded.
6. When the interest rate is cut, there is a high probability that the price of Bitcoin will be above 90,000. After the interest rate cut, it will surge in the short term. After a week, you need to pay attention to the risk of short-term correction (weekly).
7. In the RWA sector, products like ONDO and MKR will also appear.
8. Old coins with high circulation rates and full circulation may have a market.
The above analysis is purely personal opinion and is for reference only. It is not a recommendation and is at your own risk.
Soon, we should see a candlestick like the one below.
The volatility of Bitcoin ended, and after a deep V-shaped pin under the support of negative news (the worst pin was 58,000), it quickly rebounded to 68,000 or even 70,000.
The decline will be completed and then it will rise rapidly. This action should happen very quickly (one or two days), which will catch many people off guard and cause their positions to be liquidated.
By then, people will no longer discuss the risk of "overall inflation of copycats", and there will be a large number of them that perform very well.
The market of virtual currency is often against human nature. Basically, all entrants are controlled. Even if the analysis is good, it is easy to be deceived by various short-term news and K-line trends.
But it is not completely unanalyzable.
The current virtual currency market is often one-sided and will last for at least a month. After confusing most people and clearing enough one-sided contracts, it will go another way.
So when the market turns, everyone needs to be vigilant and be prepared for risks or opportunities.
The current market has continued to fall for 5 consecutive weeks. This position is close to the turning point. Generally, if there is a spike or a sharp drop at this position, it can be regarded as a trap to sell, and it also constitutes the second bottoming of the weekly W bottom.
If so, don't ask anyone, this is an opportunity.
Looking back at the three bargain hunting opportunities in this round, each one appeared amid negative news and low sentiment. If you were given another chance, what would you do?................
