April 19, 2024: Why Bitcoin May Fall to $52,000

https://10xresearch.co/videos/

Summary:

The primary driver for the recent Bitcoin price rally was the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs, which has now dried up over the past 4-5 weeks. The market internals have become weaker, with funding rates decreasing significantly, indicating a lack of speculative demand. The upside drivers for Bitcoin are no longer present, and the market is facing a risk-off environment, leading to a potential correction to the mid-50,000s. The impact of the Bitcoin halving event may not be as bullish as previously expected, as the miners are likely to sell their inventory after the halving, offsetting the reduced supply.

Macro factors, such as high inflation and interest rate hikes, have a more significant impact on Bitcoin’s price than the halving event itself. Bitcoin has not performed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, as it has sold off during these events, suggesting a more significant overhanging issue. The drying up of ETF inflows is a crucial signal, as it indicates a lack of demand from retail investors, who are typically the target audience for these products.

10x Research has taken a cautious stance, selling their tech stock positions and remaining on the side-lines with Bitcoin, waiting for the market to stabilize before potentially re-entering. A potential correlation exists between the Bitcoin futures funding rate compression and the reduced ETF inflows, suggesting a potential offset of margin trading positions. The speculative bubble in the altcoin market, particularly in Korea, has also deflated, with trading volumes returning to average volumes.

#BTC