BTC halving, why doesn't it rise?
Let me give you an example. The fourth halving of Bitcoin is like a big test, scheduled for April 2024. Before the test, everyone was very excited, thinking that this halving might give a big boost to the price of Bitcoin like before. Some people guessed that it might reach $100,000, and some even thought that the price would fluctuate between $32,000 and $85,000 throughout the year. This expectation is like everyone believes that halving can make Bitcoin more scarce, and the value will naturally go up.
But the reality is often complicated. Just like the previous halvings, although the Bitcoin market may have some small fluctuations just after the test, some people are worried that it will be different from expectations. For example, bigwigs like JPMorgan Chase are more cautious and dare not guarantee that it will definitely rise. This is different from the previous situation where everyone was excited when they heard about the halving. It shows that the market has become more rational, considering more things, and no longer focusing on halving.
Looking back, in the first two halvings, Bitcoin was like riding a rocket, and the test scores rose sharply. But in the third time, it was much more tepid. Although it finally hit a new high, it was not effective immediately. What does this show? The market has matured and is not so impulsive. It knows to consider many other factors, such as the economy, whether the policy is tight, and what the big institutions think.
Therefore, the halving in 2024 can be regarded as an important node, but everyone has a number in mind and will not only focus on this. Just like a student's exam, whether the test is good or not depends not only on this test, but also on how the usual study is, whether the teacher and parents support it, and what changes have taken place in the outside world. The same is true for the Bitcoin market. Halving is a big event, but it is not the only scenario. It must be considered in a comprehensive manner.
