According to Jinshi, interest rate traders are struggling to price in Australia's policy outcomes, which makes AUD/USD vulnerable to greater volatility and could lead to a new round of declines. Australia's retail sales data for March unexpectedly fell, which caused swap contracts to reverse again. Currently, the market shows that the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates in November is about 35%, while the pricing last Monday was 60%, because last week's CPI data promoted speculation that the Reserve Bank needs to tighten monetary policy. The market's volatile interest rate outlook may cause bond yields and AUD/USD to fall sharply, unless a series of sharply rising data unexpectedly provides a background that will stimulate the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider raising interest rates.