The market has recently entered an "awkward" period. Onlookers who are worried about the macro economy are waiting for a deep drop, and believers who entered the market early are not interested in selling, so#BTC It has been 59 days since it first broke through the 60,000 USD mark on February 28.
This situation seems familiar. In March 2023, the Federal Reserve was in a rapid interest rate hike cycle, which continuously drained market liquidity. Many US banks collapsed, and various FUDs including those against Binance and USDT made the market sentiment depressed, causing the BTC/USDT to fluctuate repeatedly in the range of US$25,000-30,000 for 219 days.
I clearly remember that many friends on Twitter at that time, including some analysts, believed that BTC would return to below $20,000 again. This became a "junk time" for most retail investors. But there are always some "smart money" that will quietly act during such a garbage time.
The following figure shows the balance change data of BTC in the exchange. I used the diff function to make a waveform visualization of the absolute value change over 30 days. It allows us to clearly observe in which time periods, a large number of BTC were withdrawn from the exchange. Because such a large amount of BTC was continuously transferred out of the exchange (30-day average), there is only one possibility, that is, "smart money" is quietly buying.
As shown in the figure, the peak of the transfer data occurred exactly when the bottom was formed at the end of this round of bear market (green box on the left). Of course, at that time, none of us could be sure that 15,000-18,000 was the historical bottom. This just proved what someone said, "The market has no bottom, but when more people copy, it becomes the bottom"; and the second transfer peak appeared in the 219-day oscillation between 25,000-30,000 (green box in the middle). That's why I said that when most people think this is a garbage time that should be cautiously watched, they don't know that "smart money" is operating against human nature.
However, the second peak is significantly smaller than the first. Now here comes the point! During the 59 days when BTC was consolidating in the range of 60,000-68,000 USD, the third outflow peak appeared, and this peak was higher than the previous one. If we don’t consider which exchange is too idle to transfer BTC in the wallet every day, it means that there are big funds quietly buying and then withdrawing them from the exchange. But since April 12, the outflow trend has gradually weakened, which is not unrelated to the current macro environment.
Let's move forward in time and look at the performance of this data from the middle of the bull market to the peak of the last cycle.
As shown in the above figure, March to December 2020 was the middle of the bull market, and a large number of outflow peaks also appeared. December 2020 to April 21 was the first stage of the peak rush, and the outflow peak was significantly smaller, accompanied by the emergence of inflows (green signal), which made the two sides relatively balanced. The 5.19 black swan event ended the first stage of the bull market, and a large number of chips were transferred to the exchange, so there was a period of inflow peak. Until the second stage of the bull market at the end of the bull market, there was another inflow peak.
With this comparison, I think it is clear to everyone that the current situation is most likely not the late stage of the bull market.
In order to verify that the above view is not a subjective conjecture, we can also see some clues from the UPRD data. The following two pictures show the turnover (movement) of chips on the BTC chain from April 15, 2024 to April 27, 2024.
As shown in the figure, the ancient chips (green box) in the previous cycle did not change. The 16,200 position decreased by 10,000 chips; the 41,200-43,400 range decreased by 30,000 chips; especially the 25,700-30,900 range decreased by 80,000 chips (the huge volume column at 26,500 did not change, mainly because the chips at 28,000 changed a lot, and it is not yet certain whether it is due to the exchange sorting out the cold wallet).
It can be seen that due to the low market sentiment during this period, the early low-priced chips did loosen to a certain extent. However, this range is still within the normal range, which is different from the situation when the early chip accumulation area was almost wiped out when the bull market peak appeared.
Moreover, 270,000 coins were added in the range of 63,300-69,200. In other words, 270,000 BTC were moved in this price range. Except for a part of wallet conversion, most of them were generated by transactions. Where there is selling, there is buying, especially around 64,000 and 66,000 US dollars, there are large funds buying. This is consistent with the third peak of transfers in this price range mentioned above. Some friends may question why most of the URPD data is generated by transactions? If we ordinary retail investors buy a few BTC, we should not mention the wallet. After all, for small retail investors, it may be safer to put the coins on the exchange, but large investors and whales don’t think so, especially after the FTX thunderstorm, "not your keys, not your coins."
Then once$BTC When the money is transferred from the exchange to the wallet, it is moved on the chain. In addition, there are many OTC transactions abroad that are often used by market makers, mining farms, and whales, which are also on-chain movements and are all recorded in the URPD data. Therefore, the proportion of data interference is not large, and it can be used as an important reference for our deduction of conclusions.
So now, do you still think it is "garbage time"?
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