BTC market trend analysis:
1. As previously assessed, Bitcoin will fluctuate in the range of 61,000-65,000. Grayscale's Bitcoin outflows from institutions are still continuing, while IBIT's inflows have been suspended. We will continue to observe the reasons next week. As we discussed before, Grayscale bought its chips at low prices, and spot ETFs provide liquidity for these chips, so these are low-cost profit-taking.
At present, the amount of Bitcoin held by Grayscale has been reduced to less than 300,000, which is only half of the previous amount. Now the market is in urgent need of new liquidity injection, such as favorable macroeconomic news, such as interest rate cut expectations, or Ethereum ETF expectations. Such good news will activate the market, so the risk warning I issued yesterday is like this. The US refinancing and interest rate meeting in early May are both opportunities and risks. In short, it is not an exaggeration to issue a direction in early May.
2. Ethereum's market has indeed failed to keep up with Bitcoin, and its own independent market has not been able to play out. It is mainly because of the lack of new narratives on the chain. After the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum seems to have disappeared from people's sight. On the other hand, the liquidity of the US market mainly revolves around Bitcoin, and Ethereum has been marginalized.
You can question Sun Ge’s character, but you can’t question his vision. Looking at the Ethereum spot ETF in May, this may be a hype opportunity. Now the big whales are still quietly accumulating Ethereum. From the trend of the exchange rate, it can be seen that even in the falling market, the exchange rate of Ethereum is steadily approaching 0.05. At this position, buying and selling are quite active, and real players will choose to quietly lay out when no one cares.
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*The following data is collected at the time of writing, and may be biased due to time changes.
1. Market dynamics and capital changes:
The current total market value is about 2.45 trillion US dollars, an increase of about -0.04 trillion US dollars compared to yesterday, an increase of about -1.61%;
The market value of Bitcoin is about 1.24 trillion US dollars, an increase of about -0.02 trillion US dollars compared to yesterday, an increase of about -1.59%;
The market value of Ethereum is about 381.036 billion US dollars, an increase of about -1.666 billion US dollars compared to yesterday, an increase of about -0.44%;
The market value of altcoins (including Ethereum) is about 1.21 trillion US dollars, an increase of about -0.02 trillion US dollars compared to yesterday, an increase of about -1.63%;
The total BTC inventory of all exchanges is still at the lowest level in the past six years. There are only 1.7298 million BTC in the exchange addresses of the entire network, which is an increase of -0.31 million BTC compared with yesterday.
The market value has decreased slightly compared with yesterday, but the change is not significant.
2. Trading volume:
The total trading volume is about 76.47 billion US dollars, an increase of about -15.602 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -16.95%;
The Bitcoin trading volume is about 25.405 billion US dollars, an increase of about -6.758 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -21.01%;
The Ethereum trading volume is about 11.854 billion US dollars, an increase of about -2.693 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -18.51%;
The trading volume of altcoins (including Ethereum) is about 49.47 billion US dollars, an increase of about -18.941 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -27.69%;
The total trading volume has decreased compared with yesterday, and there are more people waiting and watching, except that the ETH ecological trading volume has increased a lot.
3. Funding:
Total funds on the market are about 160.934 billion US dollars, an increase of about 30 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 0.02%;
USDT: market value is about 110.396 billion US dollars, an increase of about -68 million US dollars yesterday, an increase of about -0.06%; trading volume is about 40.067 billion US dollars, an increase of about -6409 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -13.79%;
USDC: market value is about 33.466 billion US dollars, an increase of about 92 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 0.28%; trading volume is about 6.819 billion US dollars, an increase of about -684 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of -9.12%;
The trading volume of funds on the market continues to decrease compared with yesterday, and it is advisable to continue to wait and see in the future.
4. Contract data
The total contract position of the entire network is about 55.39 billion US dollars, an increase of about -2.24% compared with yesterday;
The total 24-hour contract trading volume of the entire network is about 122.79 billion US dollars, an increase of about -15.28% compared with yesterday;
The total 24-hour liquidation of the entire network is about 160 million US dollars, an increase of about -5.88% compared with yesterday;
Among them, the Bitcoin contract position is about 30.217 billion US dollars, an increase of about -2.92% compared with yesterday;
The Bitcoin contract trading volume is about 58.012 billion US dollars, an increase of about -15.96% compared with yesterday;
The 24-hour liquidation of Bitcoin is about 42.9716 million US dollars, an increase of about -26.23% compared with yesterday;
Among them, the liquidation of long orders is about 34.7667 million US dollars, an increase of about 0.82% compared with yesterday;
The liquidation of short orders is about 8.2049 million US dollars, an increase of about -65.48% compared with yesterday;
From the contract data, the trading volume and liquidation volume have also decreased compared with yesterday, among which the liquidation of Bitcoin short orders has decreased significantly compared with yesterday.
5. ETF data
The total transaction volume of Bitcoin ETF is about 1.797 billion US dollars, an increase of about -353 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -16.42%;
The total market value of Bitcoin ETF is about 55.738 billion US dollars, an increase of about -1.037 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -1.83%;
The total asset management scale of Bitcoin ETF is about 53.646 billion US dollars, an increase of about -390 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -0.72%;
The various data of ETF continue to decrease compared with yesterday.
6. Risk Index
The fear and greed index is 67 (close to 100 is high risk, below 10 is in the bottom-fishing range), an increase of about -4.29% compared with yesterday;
The proportion of holdings of more than 1 year is 65.88% (less than 55% is in the high-risk area), which has not changed much compared with yesterday;
The Ahr999X index is 2.55 (below 0.4 is the bull market top area), an increase of about 5.37% compared with yesterday;
The Ahr999 index is 1.157 (below 1.2 is the fixed investment area, below 0.45 is the bottom-fishing area), an increase of about -2.77% compared with yesterday;
The market value of Bitcoin accounts for 53.36% (the lower the market value, the closer to the top of the bull market, the lowest proportion in the last bull market was 37.74%), an increase of about -0.09% compared with yesterday.
