The black swan event of the Bitcoin halving cycle in 2024

1. Black swan events that occur before the halving or during the bull market will not interrupt the bull market process.

2. A black swan event at the end of a bull market may end the bull market or even lead to a bear market.

3. Black swan events in the crypto market can be divided into several types such as regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks, global macro events and Ponzi model collapse. The past historical performance of these events has resulted in price drops of more than 40%, lasting more than a month. .

4. Black swan events occur almost every year in the crypto market. Future black swan events may be related to macro events in traditional financial markets, such as debt crises, banking problems, economic slowdowns, etc.

5. Responding to black swan events requires understanding the currency cycle, diversifying assets (including U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and over-the-counter cash flows), and hedging risks through options or hedging.

Black swan event time nodes that need attention:

1. In March before the halving, including the 312 incident and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, the stock market usually experienced huge fluctuations during this month, and many financial crises also occurred at this time.

2. In May after the halving, the 519 and LUNA events occurred in history. This is a critical time point after the halving and the Fed’s interest rate cut game.

Please note: The above time points are for reference only.

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3. From May to July 2025, one year after the halving, the 9.4 and 5.19 events occurred in history. These events interrupted the bull market process due to policy influences. This is usually preceded by signs or excessive enthusiasm in the market, and government intervention.

4. November to December 2025 are several key time points for the end of the bull market, including the historical high in 2017, the historical high in 2021, and the FTX incident in 2022. Mainly depending on whether Bitcoin makes significant progress in traditional financial markets, such as the CME Bitcoin Futures Contract and the Bitcoin Futures ETF, these events often mark the beginning of a bear market.

Please note: The above time point forecasts are for reference only, and actual conditions may be different.