Technology stocks once again saved the U.S. stock market from falling. Can the excellent financial reports of Microsoft and Google drive a rebound in the entire risk market?
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As of the time of posting, Bitcoin is priced at around 64,400. In the early morning, Bitcoin fell below 63,000 and rebounded again. As for the US stock market, the US stock market declined yesterday due to the pressure of US data, but the financial reports of Microsoft and Google were released in the early morning, which directly led to the rise of US technology stocks after the market.
After the release of PCE data tonight, the data is relatively mild, which is still the main theme of the Federal Reserve. Although there is pressure on inflation, it is still within the controllable range. So tonight, the US stock market may usher in a new wave of rebound driven by technology stocks. Can Bitcoin successfully rebound and stabilize at 66,000 this time?
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Sometimes the market is boring all day long. The only advantage of this kind of market for me is that there is no need to change the support and resistance levels every day. The technical trend changes basically very little, and several resistances and supports will basically be used for a week.
To make a long story short, the current rebound of Bitcoin still needs to pay attention to the daily resistance level of 66,000. If this position cannot be effectively broken through and stabilized, the bulls will be in danger and the risk of falling back again will also be relatively high. It is basically regarded as a volatile trend of the lower track of the daily Bollinger band.
The support below is the monthly line support of 64,000. We have measured that the support effect is really poor in these few declines, so it can only be used as an emotional value. We can only say that the bullish sentiment will be much better if it stabilizes above the monthly line support. On the contrary, the bearish sentiment of the market caused by the decline will be obvious.
61,200 is the support level of gold. This position has not been effectively tested this week. It can only be said that the long and short game in the range of 60,000 to 66,000 is still relatively strong, but it is not pure enough. The direction of traders is not clear enough, resulting in continued range fluctuations.
The RSI index continues to weaken in recent fluctuations, which is a good thing. Once it touches below 40 or even around 30, the sentiment of oversold rebound will help prices serve as support or rebound momentum.
The range-bound market basically means that the current market is dominated by emotions, so the technical aspects are only for reference. We will look at the changes in the market and funds later.
Let the data speak: Crypto market data changes and capital dynamics
In the early morning, as Bitcoin began to rebound, the entire market began the process of increasing its market value.
Although the liquidity has deteriorated compared to Thursday from Friday to date, it is still slightly optimistic compared to yesterday's data.
First of all, in terms of market value, with the rebound of Bitcoin, the altcoin and Ethereum are gradually recovering their lost market value. However, the entire altcoin is still waiting for the stabilization signal of Bitcoin. Today, the main force of market value increase is Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum, and the altcoin followed the increase slightly.
In terms of proportion, the share of altcoins has been eroded by Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Although liquidity has decreased, the decrease in trading volume during this rebound also indirectly proves that the market's short selling pressure is gradually decreasing, and the market tends to stabilize as Bitcoin rebounds.
In terms of funds, the retained funds on the exchange increased by 200 million, and the USDT USDC funds inflow from the exchange was 50 million, which means that 150 million funds came from the inflow of other stablecoins and the funds retained by the traders who ended the exchange. The increase in retained funds still represents the trend that traders are always ready to intervene in transactions.
Although the net outflow of U.S. funds has not stopped, the daily net outflow of funds is decreasing, which also indirectly proves that the sentiment of U.S. traders is gradually improving.
Today's overall data is more optimistic than yesterday's, especially the US trading funds began to flow back in the early morning after the US stock market closed, proving that the financial reports of technology stocks not only brought confidence to the stock market, but also brought some momentum to the crypto market, which is also a risk market.
Macroeconomics and news:
The data released by the United States yesterday caused setbacks to the U.S. stock market and the entire risk market. Although the performances were different, we can clearly see what the general purpose of the United States is at present.
First, the confidence of global economies and markets in the United States is clearly declining. The core of this is the control over the economy and its own economic risks. What the United States needs to do is to show its strong "muscles" to the outside world.
Everyone is actually paying attention to how the US economy will land. Regardless of the real internal factors, it must show its strength to the outside world. The best outcome for the US economy is a soft landing, and the important factors for a soft landing are: economic growth slows down, but not negative growth, inflation is under control, employment data is stable and healthy, and financial markets are stable.
At present, the situation created by the United States through data is at least that the economy is indeed slowing down, employment data is healthy, and although there is pressure on inflation, it is still within the control of the Federal Reserve. Coupled with the relatively stable performance of the financial market, the United States wants to give the world an expectation of a soft landing.
Of course, can the US economy achieve a soft landing? You can tell by asking it to cut interest rates and see what happens. Therefore, because the US wants a "soft landing" for the economy, the expectation of a rate cut will be greatly reduced.
The rebound of U.S. stocks in the early morning and even the current pre-market rise are mainly due to the frequent release of financial reports of technology stocks. Relying on technology stocks to stabilize the risk market and even bring about increases is what the United States has been doing since last year.
But in such a high interest rate environment, where can technology stocks drive the stock market? And in the absence of a new major narrative, how long can the crypto market rely on the performance of the US stock market?
In accordance with the policy of showing strength to the outside world, while maintaining the blood-sucking ability of the US dollar and US bonds, delaying interest rate cuts in the short term, etc., then in the future, before the Federal Reserve confirms the interest rate cut, the entire risk market, including the crypto market, will enter a trend of volatility, grinding, and correction, especially the US stock market. It is very important to allow the US stock market to enter a correction period and remain stable under the premise of avoiding a vicious decline.
Tonight’s PCE data should not be too outrageous. It is still the same theme, there is inflation pressure, but it is still within a controllable range.
At the same time, yesterday's ETF market suffered the largest single-day capital outflow since the ETF was approved. According to Bloomberg, the net outflow of funds was nearly 218 million US dollars. However, don't panic. We can see that during the day with the largest single-day outflow, the decline of Bitcoin was also limited. The ETF market does not represent the core transaction flow of the current Bitcoin market. It can only unilaterally represent the sentiment of American traders.
Market summary:
For contract traders, how to grasp the reasonable position of range oscillation to go long or short will be the theme for some time in the future. At the same time, you must make good expectations on what position needs to be stopped and changed direction for breakthrough. Don't try to make trends. Even if many people are optimistic about the bearish trend, the whole process is not smooth sailing. Once the position of opening a position is not ideal, it is very likely that the stop loss position will be hit in a certain rebound. Therefore, contract traders must learn to be cautious and improve risk control.
For spot traders and coin hoarders, waiting may be the theme for some time to come. As for the correction of the volatile decline, as long as there is no sharp drop, there is a possibility of rotation in each sector of the altcoin market during this period, so it is important to reasonably control your positions and chips.
The passage of ETFs has changed the fundamentals of Bitcoin, and has also changed the callback space that many people originally expected. Therefore, even if there is a callback, it may not be as expected, and the decline is not so painful. In a dull and volatile market, any hot spot may bring a wave of market rebound and rise. What spot traders have to do is not to blindly chase and build positions in small-level breakthroughs, and in small-level declines, if your chips are in a good position, don't blindly throw away your chips.
Giving up frequent trading and being more patient will be the theme for some time to come, and it is also a test for all traders in the market. In fact, crypto market traders lack more patience for traditional financial traders, and with the passage of ETFs, Bitcoin has gradually matured and is close to traditional finance, so the previous impulsive operation method may require each trader to make changes.
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