Why is it said that the bull market is only halfway through, rather than at the end? Why is there danger in the middle? Factors supporting the bull market trend:
After the ETF was approved, the first round of capital inflow led to a sharp rise in the market, which made long-term funds and leveraged funds profitable. It is indeed time to adjust and digest. The car is too heavy. ETF funds are long-term funds and it is a continuous process. The inflow in the first stage is temporarily suspended, and there is potential new funds in the later stage. After all, many large financial institutions have not yet promoted it on a large scale.
The crypto market gives people the feeling that the ecosystem is still "eager to try", especially now that NFTs, runes, L2, etc. related to the Bitcoin ecosystem are very active. It is not ruled out that a new round of ecological prosperity will appear. After all, SOL's meme ecosystem can be hyped so fiercely, and the concepts of the Bitcoin ecosystem have great potential for imagination.
Also, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, and it is inevitable that it will continue to flood the market with money.
Reasons for the danger: The current market has weakened and funds have become cautious. A big reason for this is the trend of the U.S. stock market. After a round of surge driven by the explosion of Nvidia's AI, the U.S. stock market is now showing signs of weakening, and the decline is even "accelerating."
Especially since the Fed has repeatedly postponed rate cuts, market funds are also worried about the economic recession. After all, in history, most of the Fed's rate cut cycles were forced to be implemented after a crisis. Will it repeat the same mistake this time? There are also concerns. However, rapid rate cuts also have risks. The Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet for two years, but because of its "risk-free" interest rate of up to 5.5%, global funds have poured into the United States for "arbitrage". Liquidity is sufficient, which goes against financial common sense. Therefore, the market has risen over the past year or so.
The current market situation is all about patience. It is still the same saying that value coins are very annoying! The bull market is still there. As long as you are still alive and not dead before dawn, you will definitely get a lot of benefits from this leverage clearance. Do you need to adjust your position if the coin performs poorly after a round of market conditions?
Sometimes it is difficult to measure a project in the short term. The poor performance of a coin in the past period of time may be due to its own reasons or market reasons.
Don’t simply judge whether a coin is performing poorly based on its price performance.
We should pay more attention to the fundamentals of the currency, and compare it vertically and horizontally. Vertical comparison mainly depends on whether it is better than in the past and whether the team is still building; horizontal comparison is to compare it with other projects in the same track to see whether it lags behind other projects.
If the fundamentals are lagging behind, I might consider it, but if there are no major problems with the fundamentals and the coin price is just average, I might still keep it.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
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