In 2022, when the price plummeted to 15,000, many people were waiting for 8,000 or 10,000.
In mid-2023, when the price plummeted to 25,000, many people were waiting for 15,000 or 20,000.
At the end of 2023, when it plummeted to 38,600, many people were waiting for 35,000 and 30,000.
When it drops to 59,000 this time, some people may still wait for 55,000 or 40,000.
The bull market is more than halfway through, and there are really not many opportunities left for everyone in the market.
Before this production cut, even though I expected the market to fall, I hedged my risks and controlled my positions. But the recurrence of 312, after a month of continuous decline, was beyond my expectations, after all, it is a bull market now.
However, when you encounter opportunities like 413 and 414, you have to seize them. For people who have good position control, such opportunities are rare in a bull market.
But I feel that this time's opportunity is basically the same as the previous two times. There are still many people who will do the opposite and cut their losses due to incorrect operations.
I dare say that 90% of retail investors who enter this circle are impatient and are not prepared.
I have told many people before that they should control their positions, always have a clear mindset, have a copycat profit-taking strategy, and be brave enough to sell without fear of selling out. But in fact, from their attitudes when chatting with me, I know that they will still hold a full position during the rise and will not be willing to sell at all, and then start panic selling after a sharp drop instead of buying at the bottom.
I seldom talk about opportunities, but this is probably the third time in this round.
I still emphasize position management. Many people asked me during the previous surge in the market, why did they not fill their positions even though they knew it was a bull market?
Now I know that every time there is a crash, I wake up from my dream.
The first lesson that the uncle taught Po was about "losing money": he bought electric vacuum stocks for 6,000 yuan and lost half of it within a week. He also told him the "principle of the Empire State Building."
Only if you climb high will you run the risk of diving.
If you are on the first and second floors, you don’t have to consider such risks at all, so when the 413 and 414 crashes occurred, entering the market at this time would not kill you.
Today, the production cuts have ended, and it will be another 4 years before the next production cut. Before that, there will be a bear market for at least 2 more years.
Time is really running out. There may be further pullbacks, but the opportunities will only become fewer and fewer.
During the plunge in the past few days, some people believed that the bull market was over and regarded 73,000 as the peak of this bull market. Is this true?
I think that's bullshit.
First of all, after the production cut, data from all parties show that the mining cost of Bitcoin is between 40,000 and 50,000. This shutdown price determines that only if Bitcoin is maintained at 55,000 or even above 60,000, miners can make considerable profits.
Secondly, is it reasonable to hype up the rate cuts, slowdowns and rate hikes? Is it possible? I think everything is possible, but one fact that cannot be changed is that the rate hikes are coming to an end and the rate cut cycle is about to begin. As long as the cycle is right, all kinds of delays, harsh words, and hawkishness are strategies of some people, so the cycle is far from over.
Furthermore, there are two things worth noting this week: the U.S. stock market fell, but the broader market did not follow; the amplitude of Bitcoin decreased, and the copycat stocks began to absorb blood (which can also be seen as a bottoming out and rebound) and rise.
I think both of these are beneficial.
There are many corrections in the bull market, but don’t let the short-term market affect your judgment of the trend! The trend is that there must be big bulls in the currency circle, and now this sentiment has been verified!
If the mood comes and the market falls for a long enough time, then until next year and the year after, there will most likely be a very important bull trend that will change your destiny. So what should we do? Bet on lower prices?
Yes, betting on a lower price can earn more. But if BTC can reach 100,000, you buy it after it rises, for example, you make 50,000 if you buy it at 50,000. If it drops to 20,000, you make 80,000. If you buy it at 30,000, you make 70,000.
Where do you think you can buy? In the investment market, don't be clever, that's to make small money, not long-term, be stupid and make less money.
From the perspective of Bitcoin, it is never too late to buy. From the perspective of Shanzhai, it is best for Bitcoin to go sideways, and Shanzhai will then make up for the losses and rise. This was the view on the 20th.
So, will there be a sharp drop after the production cut?
On the surface, both the 312 and current crashes had external causes, but in fact they were more planned and premeditated by the dog dealers to clean up the market before the bull market and to clear leverage.
Two months after BlackRock and other capitals entered the market, is the bull market over?
No matter how good the reasons are, I won't believe it.
I also remind everyone that before entering the cryptocurrency world, you should be prepared to arm yourself and strengthen yourself. When the price goes up, don't forget the risks, and when the price goes down, don't be afraid of the opportunities.
In a bull market, not everyone makes money. Instead, some people make a lot of money, while others lose a lot of money, and the speed of making and losing money increases.
Those who can make big money in the cryptocurrency world have to persevere, because the bull market does not continue to rise, but there will be a sharp drop every now and then, but no one except the main players can accurately predict the short-term correction every time.
If you sell your shares immediately when you encounter a pullback, you will never be able to cut all your losses. If you sell your shares in advance, you will miss out. If you want to make money, you must endure. If you can endure, you will stand out. If you can't, you will be eliminated.
There is a conflict between not wanting to suffer a pullback and wanting to make a lot of money in the cryptocurrency world.
Finally, let's talk about runes. Someone asked me how to read runes? Is it unpopular? The popularity is gone.
You have to consider that none of the top 10 runes are completely out of the circle. And this time it is a real project bureau, an institutional bureau. The ones who make money are basically the players who participate in these airdrops and the players who know how to play. Whether it is the RISC airdrop or the subsequent rune dog airdrop, it will be a considerable profit.
It's just that this time, we Eastern players have experienced the inscription craze and don't have that feeling about runes. First, there are basically no cheap chips.
When the runes were launched on the first day, the first 9 "Genesis Runes" directly fed the miners, and GAS was directly raised to 2700, and it continued to rise.
Therefore, the joke about withdrawing 1000u and getting 400u in the account is not a joke, it is a true story.
The cost of casting a rune is basically around 300u. When it is low, it is about 100u. When it is high, it is even more exaggerated.
Generally, everyone buys in multiples of 24. Some people buy 200 cards, and some buy 500 cards. The cost differs by dozens of times.
It’s like you buy 10,000u coins, and others buy 1,000,000u. The investments are different, and you still want to make a profit?
The amount of money wasted is even more exaggerated. You have to monitor the gas on the chain at all times. If others pull 2700, you pull 3700. If others pull 3700, you pull 5000. Otherwise, your gas will be directly reduced to zero.
After all, being bold is the first step, daring to invest far more than others, and daring to use GAS to kill the opponent.
The second reason is that it is reserved. The third reason is that the name is too long and not conducive to dissemination. Look at the current situation, there is no such madness as in the original inscription community. Currently, it is a high-gas, high-difficulty gameplay, and it is not yet practical for ordinary players.
Everyone still uses the old way of playing runes and has not adapted to the new rules of the game. After all, most of them are ancient inscription players. Currently, as long as one rune is on the big site, it will explode. It is currently in the early stages.#比特币减半 #大盘走势