The bull market that everyone anticipates usually occurs after the overheating during the recovery phase has ended. The recovery phase acts like a warm-up, setting the stage before the main game begins.

Every recovery phase has its moments of overheating and peaks. This time, the atmosphere was even more heated than in previous cycles, with the situation resolving over time rather than through price corrections alone.

According to past cycles, the transition from recovery to the main game began when the MVRV reached the median of the Bollinger Bands or the average level of the four-year cycle.

The market is still at an MVRV level of 2.23, which is more than double the average on-chain purchase price. If a similar pattern to the past occurs, a correction of around -20% is possible. (this level is MVRV 1.7+-)

Right! reaching 50k is considered 'normal' in this context. There is nothing unusual about it, given the rapid and steep nature of this recovery phase.

Will it really reach that price? It's uncertain, but the possibility exists. Factors like ETFs, interest rates, war, and a different pattern of period adjustments could all play a role.

This isn't a prophecy but a preparedness for what could happen.

Written by CoinLupin