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The information and data in this content are derived from publicly available materials and strive to be accurate and reliable, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice and investments based on it are at your own risk.
The trading market is an anti-human market. The worst moment is the best moment.
A vague correctness is always better than a precise error. Sometimes we all want to pursue a relatively precise entry point, but we often suffer more misses or mistakes. As long as the direction is right, buying or selling is in a relative range, short-term pain is put aside, and the harvest is often a huge surprise~
Recently, the news that Hong Kong approved the Bitcoin/Ethereum spot ETF has sparked a lot of discussion in the circle. Through in-depth interpretation, it shows that the domestic top leaders have an open attitude towards Hong Kong-related finance and support for the web3.0 industry. Although this news is not enough to detonate the market, it will greatly help the current crypto users' confidence in holding positions.
The approval of the Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF will attract at least $1 billion in capital inflows into BTC in the next few months (predicted by executives of multiple exchanges). Excluding southbound funds, there are other market increments that will attract nearly $10 billion in capital inflows into the Hong Kong Bitcoin Ethereum ETF by the end of this year (according to people familiar with the matter).
The industry is divided on whether southbound funds will be approved to flow into the Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF. Those in favor believe that the three approved Hong Kong funds are all Chinese-backed, which has actually sent a clear signal.
It is understood that the official trading time of Hong Kong's Bitcoin spot ETF is around April 25. A few weeks or a month later, the Ethereum spot ETF can be officially traded on the market and can be delivered in kind.
Physical delivery means that if a user owns one Bitcoin, he can exchange it for a Bitcoin ETF of approximately a fixed ratio. In the United States, only legal currency can be used to purchase Bitcoin spot ETF. The physical delivery trading method obviously increases liquidity and arbitrage opportunities.
In addition, the transaction costs of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong will be slightly higher than those in the US market for two reasons:
First, the SFC requires that virtual assets in custody be insured;
Second, the SFC requires institutions to cooperate with ETF index providers;
The custody fee and transaction fee of Bitcoin spot ETF in Hong Kong is less than 0.5%. This figure is close to the custody fee of virtual assets in the United States such as Coinbase. All signs show that Hong Kong is about to become a holy land of web3.0, which brings unlimited business opportunities and confidence support to related practitioners.
The amplitude of this wave of Bitcoin's pullback is not large. It has risen and fallen and returned to around 64,000. The pullback of the copycat is more terrifying, all of which started with a halving. This wave of pullback is different from the waterfall on May 19, 21. The fundamental reason for the waterfall on May 19 was that the selling of large investors caused fear among retail investors and led to a stampede. In this wave of pullback, neither large investors nor retail investors sold. It was definitely a trick played by Wall Street, which took advantage of the turbulent situation and frequent wars to reap the world once.
The target of this harvest is the copycat contracts. Bitcoin was directly pulled up to around $73,000 due to the approval of the American ETF, which directly led to most retail investors missing out. These retail investors who missed out on the opportunity will naturally turn their attention to copycats, so there are a lot of copycats, which is also the direct cause of this wave of harvest. Only after they are cleaned up will the price rise cleanly and neatly.
Every bull market manifests itself differently, and it becomes more and more difficult to operate. Those old folks who follow the old ways and apply their experience are particularly hard hit.
In the bull market cycle, every crash is a time to look for opportunities. How to choose high-quality varieties among the crashing currencies? I have summarized three points:
①VC coins: The coins held by institutions. These coins are not bad, such as Grayscale and other institutions.
② Old coins: You need to find the leader and have narrative ability. Simply put, you can still tell a story now.
③ New coins: Speculate on new ones instead of old ones. This year, Binance has launched many high-quality new coins
Next, we will use the Chaos Theory structure to analyze the trend of Bitcoin and some altcoins:
BTC: The downward structure of the daily line has emerged, and a complete downward consolidation trend has been formed in four hours. From March 15 to April 16, three downward spikes have been completed, and none of them broke 60,000. Therefore, 60,000 can be used as a defensive support. If it does not break 60,000, it will directly reverse and reach a new high expectation①. If it breaks, it will aim at around 50,000②
ETH: Ethereum has performed poorly this time, and the pullback is much stronger than Bitcoin. The daily line has moved downwards, and is currently supported by the 120-day moving average. It is expected to rebound①, and the next support is around 2489
DOGE: The price of DOGE doubled after the ambush before the New Year. At the current position, DOGE can at least double its price. The next ambush opportunity is the three buys on the daily line.
WLD: The consensus of the world currency cannot be matched by any other currency. It has already risen 10 times, and is said to have a potential of 100 times in the year of AI explosion. The daily line correction is in place, and we need to wait patiently for the repair of the pattern.
XRP: Ripple is too heavy, most of the retail investors who missed out on the opportunity have bought Ripple, and the market outlook is bullish
ENS: As the leading domain name on the Ethereum chain, it has huge potential in the future. It is not a problem to increase 10 times based on the current price. It is currently in the second buy position on the daily line. After the bottom is repaired, it is waiting for takeoff.
TIA: Modular dark horse, the community began to ambush near $2, it has doubled 10 times before, and is currently at the end of the daily downward line segment, and the future is promising
LINK: Oracle, one of the old coins with good ecology, with narrative ability, the daily line is moving downward and waiting for the pattern to be repaired, and the target daily line is moving upward
OP: One of the leaders of L2 sector, the performance is better than ARB. This wave focuses on the daily line three buys, the daily line moves down and waits for the pattern to be repaired, and the target daily line moves up
ARB: L2 sector, weaker than OP, you can choose one of them, the daily line moves down and waits for the pattern to be repaired, the target daily line moves up
DOT: Polkadot officials have always said that they will do something big this year. Although it is an old coin, it has a strong narrative ability and a good consensus. The third section of the daily central axis, the detonation point strategy to deal with it
ADA: Cardano made many people rich in the past. After all, it is a thousand-fold currency. Now there are still many retail investors who are optimistic about it and buy it. Pay attention to the third section of the daily central axis.
(The above views are for reference only and are not intended as investment advice)
If the starting point is correct, then the deduction and reasoning will be absolutely correct. Focus on the BTC/ETH Chaos Theory to analyze the trend direction, ambush high-quality cottages, and recommend SOL/DOGE and other high-quality cottages in July 23 through the Chaos Theory structure, which will rise at the monthly level and have doubled several times~
Improve the trading system of the Chaos Theory, watch the trend of birth, growth, decay and death, as free as flowers blooming, as clear as palm lines, welcome to join my team~
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