Recently, as expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have gradually faded and the escalating situation in the Middle East has prompted investors to shift to safe-haven assets, the three major U.S. stock indexes have fallen by about 1.5%, while the U.S. dollar index once rose above 106. U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded again after falling from their highs over the weekend. The current two-year/10-year yields are 4.94%/4.577% respectively.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

The conflict caused by geopolitics has also affected digital currencies. Bitcoin plunged from $69,000 to $59,000 last Friday, causing more than $1 billion in futures long liquidations within 48 hours. The market attributed the subsequent rebound in part to the boost to market confidence brought by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)'s official announcement of the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Not only did it approve the Ethereum spot ETF one step earlier than the United States, it even allowed the subscription and redemption of ETFs in kind.

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

During this price drop, the "whales" of digital currencies bought a large amount of ETH at the low point to build positions. For example, an address starting with "0x E 34" chose the right time to add 1,000 ETH worth 3.15 $M at the lowest point, and the overall position reached 8,300 ETH.

Source: Twitter

In terms of options, although the price of the currency has recovered nearly half of its losses, the implied volatility is still high, with ETH being about 10% Vol higher than BTC at the front end. The term structure remains inverted, with Vol Skew at a low level in the past three months (25% percentile).

In terms of trading, BTC has seen a considerable amount of Long Put Spread at 19 APR and 26 APR, which may be a further protection against the volatility caused by the halving event on April 18-20. On the other hand, price adjustments have also attracted traders to buy on dips, especially at the end of May, when call option positions represented by Buy BTC 69000-C (850 BTC) and ETH 3800-C (10542 ETH) became the focus of the market.

Source: Deribit (As of 12 APR 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol continues to decline

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade