Regarding the relationship between the war and the decline of Bitcoin, in essence, it is still the relationship between the expected increase in US inflation and the risk market. When the war started, crude oil prices soared, the US dollar strengthened, US inflation intensified, the expectation of interest rate cuts was delayed, and the liquidity of risk capital decreased. This is the logic. Black swans are often most likely to appear when there are huge changes in the macro environment between high interest rates and upcoming interest rate cuts. The current trend feels like a black swan, and after this battle, it is more like a prelude to the arrival of a big bull market.

Bitcoin plunged 290,000 people and the liquidation was directly on Weibo. The contract is like this, the speed is very fast, but it is easy to lose everything. There are still 6 days before the Bitcoin halving. The market cycle has finally returned to the state of the sharp drop before the halving. The spot is very slow, but if you persist in such a situation, we will be greeted by a new round of exponential surge in the future. Today, I bought the short-term band and prepared to take a break. I changed my position to u to see how much it can reach in the next two days. The forecast is to reach 59,000. The limit will be 55,000. Let's see if there are any black swans. If a big black swan appears, don't buy the bottom easily. 44,000 is the bottom