Just over three years ago, as Bitcoin began its final bull cycle, experts in the field came together to write “The Future of Bitcoin: 12 Scenarios from Bullish to Bearish.” : 12 Scenarios From Bullish to Bearish).
Bitcoin price at that time was only around 25,000 USD – but it was also a sky-high price for traders. No one has heard of SBF, Bitcoin Ordinals or ChatGPT and no one owns a Bitcoin ETF.
So, as Bitcoin enters its fourth halving event this April, it's time to refresh and improve these scenarios, from bullish to bearish. And once again, experts come together to define “the future” ten years from now – far enough away to have room to play and close enough to have a connection to reality.
However, one thing remains the same: we all have to find our way, and no one really knows what will happen to Bitcoin. As Elizabeth Stark once said: “Most of the biggest use cases in the next 10 years will be things that sound crazy to us today. Just like an encyclopedia that anyone could edit would sound crazy to people who lived in an era before Wikipedia existed.”
1. Bitcoin is used to “buy a cup of coffee”
Cory Klippsten – CEO of Swan – imagines that in 10 years, Bitcoin could actually be used as a popular payment method for things like coffee, beer or donuts.
“By 2035, you will be able to buy most goods and services worldwide with sats (single units of btc).”
This does not mean that he thinks Bitcoin will completely replace the dollar. He envisions that most goods will have “two price tags” – one in fiat currency, one in Bitcoin. “Bitcoin will not replace all fiat currencies,” Klippsten said. We will simply live in a multi-currency world, as we always have.”
2. The game is supported by Bitcoin
It is estimated that there are more than 3 billion gamers in the world. Des Dickerson – CEO of THNDR Games – has painted a picture of the future where billions of gamers will receive rewards in Bitcoin thanks to the speed of the Lightning Network.
“Bitcoin should be the native currency of the Internet. So, without further ado, it should naturally appear in games.”
Of course, this is still just a theory. Even though THNDR has 1.5 million users, Dickerson still has to admit: "We won't see widespread adoption until a game that owns Bitcoin goes viral."
3. TradFi domesticates Bitcoin
In the first line of his whitepaper, Satoshi Nakamoto described Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency that “allows online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without having to go through any financial institution".
These words have been discussed and analyzed for over 15 years. For many in the space, they are more symbolic and inspirational than “self-evident truths.” And the most important provision, for many people, is “no need to go through a financial institution”.
That's why Bitcoin's biggest story in 2024 – the emergence of ETFs – is such a dumb mover. Isaiah Jackson, author of the book "Bitcoin and Black America", considers ETFs a double-edged sword. On the one hand, ETFs have unleashed a new source of capital, which Jackson believes will “send prices through the roof.” But again, the capital injected by ETFs gives more power to the Blackrocks and Fidelities of the world. “If you have enough Bitcoin, you can buy lobbyists,” Jackson said. And you can persuade them (politicians) on issues like controlling Bitcoin mining.”
Wendy O – host of The O Show – also expressed similar concerns. She acknowledges the real benefits of “morally killing” Bitcoin’s ETF-driven bull run, but also envisions a scenario in which “TradFi steps in and manages Bitcoin for us.” .
4. ABI: Artificial Bitcoin Intelligence
As AI continues to develop, we will soon see the rise of “smart agents” that can do things like book flights, pay bills, and order food for us.
David Johnston – a key contributor to the Morpheus project (a project that is building a decentralized platform for AI agents to trade and use cryptocurrencies) – said: “No one gives AI an account. banking accounts, but Bitcoin is the perfect digital medium for AI to transact.”
The role of Bitcoin and AI does not stop at spending power. “If you have an intelligent agent that can send transactions or access DeFi, then you have a whole new set of tools that you can access,” Johnston said. According to Johnston, just as ChatGPT has made it easier for non-coders to program in plain English, in the future, we can also easily use advanced DeFi tools without any need. any technical knowledge and no need to use a bank.
Johnston gives a quick example: “Let's say I want to earn Bitcoin profits natively, without wraps, without bridges, and without third parties.” This is difficult for the novice. With AI-powered Bitcoin, Johnston believes customers can simply say something like: “I want my Bitcoin to earn a certain amount of profit in a short period of time in a secure and decentralized manner.” , it will do research to find solutions that are sustainable, reputable and “not the crap a KOL on YouTube is bitching about”.
5. Choked by taxes and regulations
“We don't know what will happen with the regulations,” said Wendy O. She is encouraged by the pro-Bitcoin policies in El Salvador, but worries that in the United States there is “so much bureaucracy, so many bureaucrats everywhere that no one knows how to classify it.” any". She thinks a complete ban on Bitcoin is unlikely but worries the government could “make it difficult to participate in the ecosystem.”
Or perhaps, as Jackson suspects, the government creates “some obstacle” to the process of converting Bitcoin into fiat currency, such as forcing us to convert it into CBDC (Bank Digital Currency). Central Bank) first. The way Jackson sees it, if the value of 1 Bitcoin skyrockets to $1 million in 10 years – and if they have to use government digital currency as an offramp – that will “trap a lot of money.” a lot of people to get CBDC, and I think that's what they want to monitor and control.”
Klippsten acknowledges the risks of regulation, but is skeptical that politics will ultimately favor Bitcoin. “The rules change according to the will of the people,” Klippsten said. At some point, there will be a lot of people who own large amounts of Bitcoin… and they will make it extremely difficult for politicians to stand in their way.”
6. Bitcoin black market
If the government somehow succeeds in strangling or over-regulating Bitcoin, Jackson said, then naturally there will be demand for “black market Bitcoin” – Bitcoin that is outside the government network. For example, people who earn Bitcoin from home mining or own Bitcoin are more difficult (if not impossible) to track with tools like Chainanalysis.
These concerns are not new. The FBI has been tracking Bitcoin for more than a decade, in what some consider a solid law enforcement agency and others consider a surveillance nightmare. So if tracking and regulation escalates, we could live in a world of “2 Bitcoins” or “Shadow Bitcoins” where perhaps everyone has to pay a price for the tracked Bitcoins. tracking and higher prices for Shadow Bitcoin.
Then again, while Jackson acknowledged the concern, he also saw this as something the government would be difficult to implement in practice. Once we reach widespread adoption, there will be billions of Bitcoin wallets, so “good luck trying to stop them all,” Jackson said.
7. Bitcoin thrives as a store of value
This is extremely simple, but sometimes the simplest situations are the most likely to happen. “Bitcoin's core value proposition is a global digital store of value,” said Anthony Pompliano, aka “Pomp” of Pomp Investments. There are other potential use cases that could come to fruition, but the core proposition is the one most likely to last for decades.”
Pomp even saw a generational change. He said that Bitcoin now serves as a “benchmark for many young investors,” similar to how the S&P 500 is a benchmark for stock pickers.
“If they can't beat Bitcoin's performance, then they simply focus on buying Bitcoin.”
8. Bitcoin deposit machine
Back in early 2021, right before the AI hype exploded, Elizabeth Stark told me she envisioned a future where “Machines will pay machines, natively, instantly ” and “Teslas will charge money for charging 00 electric vehicles via Lightning Network” over the Bitcoin network.
Three years later, her prediction is even more likely. It seems that at some point, machines and even robots will need to spend money. And “robot” doesn't necessarily mean Terminator. It can be as simple as the Internet of Things. And how likely are these robots or machines to spend US dollars from their accounts at Wells Fargo?
“Bitcoins, stablecoins and digital currencies will be the currencies of choice for many automation use cases.” He argued that engines looking for instant payments “will not be able to use cryptocurrencies because settlement times take days. This is where Bitcoin or stablecoins can really shine.”
9. Bitcoin ordinals explode
This may seem like a familiar or even boring topic to those who closely follow the cryptocurrency space, but you would get a strange look if you asked a random person in the grocery store, “Are you What do you think about Bitcoin Ordinals? Common sense is still not close to the mainstream. But in 10 years, they might be, and that could transform everything about the world of digital collectibles, making NFT Summer 2021 look quaint by comparison.
“Once we start getting closer to mass adoption, I think people will start using tokens because they are more secure than NFTs,” said Wendy, who also suspects that this is “still very far away”.
10. Status quo continues
Cas Piancey – co-host of Crypto Critics' Corner podcast – said: “I know this isn't too exciting. But what I suspect will happen is that Bitcoin will largely be used for the exact same purposes as it is now.”
Piancey considers himself a crypto skeptic, but this doesn't mean he likes investing in Bitcoin. He can see nuance. “When people argue that there is no use case for Bitcoin, I usually disagree with that,” he said. And he imagines that in 10 years, Bitcoin will still be used to transfer money; it will still occasionally be used as a tool for dissidents; and is still held by many as a store of value.
He's not someone waiting for the end of the world. So he imagines that in 10 years Bitcoin will still be bullish, but warns, “Those who say it will be the next world currency are out of their minds.”
11. Bitcoin's death was caused by a Black Swan
It's possible that Bitcoin could be hacked by quantum computing. Perhaps there is a 51% attack. And maybe Bitcoin has been gutted by ChatGPT7.
So this is like a “doomsday scenario” that requires the humility to admit that we don't know what we don't know. (I explored doomsday risks in more detail in the original piece). Many in the space say Bitcoin dominance is “inevitable,” but very little in life is actually inevitable – just ask Thanos.
Isaiah Jackson is as bullish on Bitcoin as you will find, but even he admits that a hack using quantum computing, for example, is still theoretically possible. He thinks the risk is low – and suspects that malevolent quantum hackers will focus first on more attractive targets, such as sovereign states – but admits that it is “always a risk.” ro”.
12. Bitcoin telepathy
In his original work The Future of Bitcoin, Jackson presented what could be considered the most interesting scenario: at some point Bitcoin will be spent on Mars.
Jackson was thinking about Noland Arbaughf, who was paralyzed below the shoulder. Arbaughf then became the first patient to have a Neuralink chip implanted in his brain, and he can now play chess and even send Tweets just by thinking. “It was like using force,”Arbaughf said after he “thought” a tweet would exist.
So Jackson realized something. If we can send Tweets with just our thoughts by 2024, it's only a matter of time before we can send Bitcoins telepathically. “The guy just thought of a tweet and it came out,” Jackson said. One day we will think. Now the code for the private Bitcoin wallet.”
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