According to Matt Balensweig, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will bring about “real changes” in the supply and demand dynamics of BTC. Balensweig's views bring a new perspective to the ongoing rumors about whether the halving is priced in.
“Cryptocurrency investors and traders constantly ask the question ‘is the halving priced in?’ but it tends not to be priced in every cycle,” Balensweig said. He drew parallels with the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, which many investors believe will be priced in. However, the price of Bitcoin rose significantly in the first 60 days of ETF trading, indicating that the market was unable to fully predict the impact.
Balensweig explained that certain events cause concrete changes in the supply and demand dynamics in exchange order books. He argued that the upcoming halving will exemplify this trend:
“These specific events lead to real changes in the supply and demand dynamics in exchange order books. “When spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, there was committed capital to flow into these products, causing buy-side pressure and therefore impacting the price, regardless of what trading activity looked like before the event.”
Ahead of the upcoming halving, investors will try to position themselves. However, Balensweig said that “assuming that the daily supply will decrease in the exchange order books when the event occurs and the demand will remain constant, the sell side will be weaker and this will again lead to buy side pressure.”
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