Currently, the market predicts that the probability of a rate cut in September is 46%, and the probability of another rate cut in December is 33%. The three rate cuts previously predicted now seem to be a bit uncertain.
Looking at the US stock market, its bull market momentum has been strong since the end of October last year, and the stock markets and risky assets such as bitcoin in many countries have also set off a wave of rising frenzy in advance. After experiencing the previous quantitative easing policies, investors have a clear understanding of the price performance of risky assets after interest rate cuts. Although the market has experienced a certain correction after a long period of interest rate hikes, the economic fundamentals have not shown signs of collapse, so the recovery of market confidence is faster than ever before.
The reason why I firmly believe that 25 years will be a big bull market in the B circle is that we have not yet started to cut interest rates. Once the capital release and the halving cycle resonate, the market next year will undoubtedly be more attractive. If this round of bull market is driven by ETF funds, then next year's bull market will be led by the spillover of US stock funds, which will be a whole new level.
In the past month, I have repeatedly warned of risks and even continued to reduce my positions at high levels, but this does not mean that I am not optimistic about the market in 25 years. Although the current price level is relatively high, it is still some distance away from the ceiling of the big cake. For investors with sufficient cash flow, long-term thinking is completely feasible. At worst, they can wait another year.
However, from an operational perspective, while reducing positions at a high level, I also foresee that market sentiment may reach a high point before the interest rate cut is confirmed, and there may be a significant correction. Returns and risks always go hand in hand. I hope to capture more chips in the callback market, but I am also prepared to lose greater profits due to lightening my position. Similar to past bear markets, if we pursue lower prices blindly, we may miss opportunities and actually trade potential opportunity costs for lower prices.
At present, the market is in a confused stage, and we need to be more cautious in making decisions based on the price. From the perspective of capital, the projects launched nowadays have a circulation market value of hundreds of millions, which to a certain extent also shows the high trend of the market. Therefore, we need to remain vigilant and respond flexibly to market changes.
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