Why can the price of Bitcoin ETF still rise when the data is a net outflow?

We have talked about this question many times. Although spot ETFs do bring a lot of funds, there is still a big gap compared to the daily transactions on centralized exchanges. Therefore, the fact that spot ETFs are net inflows does not mean that the price of BTC will definitely rise, nor does it mean that the price of BTC will definitely fall if there is a net outflow.

Some friends may ask, since the data of ETFs cannot determine the price trend, why do we still need to look at the data of ETFs. It just so happens that today, the BTC spot ETF has been in operation for three months. From January 11 to now, the most direct data is that the net increase in holdings is 517,470 in these three months.

What is this concept? If calculated based on the average price of US$60,000, then in these 90 days, the ETF has absorbed a net of US$31.05 billion. You must know that these BTCs have been locked in various funds after purchase and have not been sold. I don’t know when they will be sold, but from the current data, even if ETF investors are not willing to continue buying, there is almost no sign of selling except GBTC.

I think, at least they are waiting for the halving and the US election. It is not even ruled out that these institutions or investors who bought want to hold it for a longer time. Therefore, although the data of ETFs cannot be used as a standard to measure the rise and fall of BTC prices, it is a very good unit for judging the cycle, especially the data of net inflows and net outflows, which can even represent the sentiment indicators of US investors.

Of course, judging from the data of the last 24 hours, it is indeed not very good. BlackRock and Fidelity took turns to ride the roller coaster. In the last trading day, BlackRock's net increase was only 478 BTC, and Fidelity's net increase was nearly 1,100 BTC. The selling volume of GBTC also fluctuated greatly, selling 2,258 BTC. The other seven ETFs, except Bitwise, had zero increase in holdings.

To put it nicely, investors are unwilling to sell. After all, the halving will be more than a week away. At this position, it will become more and more difficult to smash the market. After all, it has reached the focus of the big cycle. Before the falsification, investors still have good expectations, and macro-level, no one has come out to make trouble.

But to put it bluntly, purchasing power is very weak. This is the third consecutive day of net outflow this week. Although the price of BTC has increased, this is entirely based on the fact that no one wants to sell. If there is negative sentiment and information, the situation may not look good.