CPI data is lower than expected, and the interest rate cut in June will be postponed again
Last night, the US CPI in March increased by 3.5% year-on-year, a six-month high, higher than the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.2%; the month-on-month increase was 0.4%, also higher than the expected 0.3%, and the same as the previous value. The core CPI was higher than expected for the third consecutive month, with an annual rate of 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.7%, and the monthly rate remained at 0.4%. As of this morning, the swap market bet that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June was 18%, and the annual rate cut was only 41 basis points, that is, less than two times.
Biden said after the release of the CPI data that he still expected the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of the year, and Wednesday's report may postpone the start of the rate cut by at least one month.
Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Almost all participants believed that it was appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and were ready to slow down the pace of Treasury bond reduction "quite quickly", tending to reduce the monthly balance sheet reduction by about half.
The Fed has always adjusted based on this data. This time, Wall Street is completely aware of this problem, so their expectations are not as aggressive as before. Then everyone is prepared for the expectation that there will be no interest rate cut in June. According to this expectation, short-term adjustments in US stocks are inevitable. However, returning to the encryption field, it seems that the impact is relatively small, because Bitcoin ETF is being embraced by mainstream institutions after its approval and will become a new type of investment target. We don’t need to worry too much.
The general trend still needs to focus on the halving of the bitcoin, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and news on ETFs!
