According to analyst predictions in the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report, Bitcoin could increase by 160%, reaching $150,000 14 months after the halving.

Bitfinex has used a simple and straightforward regression model to predict diminishing returns by analyzing the impact of previous halvings on BTC price. However, this model does not see BTC reaching a new all-time high (ATH) before the halving, so the post-halving price increase could exceed 160%.

Upcoming halving event

Halving occurs every 4 years or after 210,000 blocks and is currently scheduled for April 20. This mechanism cuts the Bitcoin block reward by 50% and will reduce the current figure from 6.25 BTC to 3,125 BTC. Accordingly, the rate of new coin production will be slower to ensure that the supply gradually decreases over time.

Historically, Bitcoin's value increased after the halving event due to sustained or higher demand, but the level of growth in this cycle may be different as the asset first recorded a new ATH before the event take place.

While this factor could be seen as a bullish indicator, analysts said it also signals uncertainty about market dynamics, highlighting the need to better understand market conditions and impacts. their potential impact on future Bitcoin price movements.

Bitcoin Could Rise 160%

Bitcoin increased 9,300% from $12 to $1,161 in 396 days or about 13 months after the 2012 halving. The asset increased in 2017, adding 2,800% in value from $600 to $20,000 around 17 months after the 2016 halving. Three years ago, the impact of the 2020 halving pushed BTC up 700% from $9,000 to $69,000, about 11 months after the event.

Based on analysis, BTC is expected to increase by 160% within 420 days or 14 months after the next halving. This provides guidance for expectations of Bitcoin's post-halving market behavior.

“The estimate is consistent with the observed trend of a decreasing percentage after each halving event. With conservative estimates placing the BTC price at between $57,000 and $65,000 at the time of the halving, a 160% increase would result in a BTC price ranging from around $150,000 to $169,000 at the peak of the cycle,” Bitfinex said. declare.

Benchmark Company analyst Mark Palmer also predicts Bitcoin price will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.

This forecast surpasses Palmer's previous forecast from February 27 that the price would reach $125,000 over the same period.

Analyst Palmer noted on April 8 that Benchmark raised its MicroStrategy (MSTR) price target to $1,875, nearly doubling the previous target of $990 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

Palmer's optimism about MSTR stems from the company's large holdings of Bitcoin. Palmer predicts the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization will reach a price of $150,000 by 2025. Palmer emphasized the potential benefits of MicroStrategy holding a significant amount of Bitcoin, especially in light of the The upcoming halving event will reduce BTC supply by half.

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Palmer also highlighted the historical importance of the Bitcoin halving event for BTC prices. Palmer pointed out previous halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020 were followed by price increases due to the supply shock they caused.

Palmer suggested that the upcoming halving could create a similar effect, potentially amplified by increased demand due to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETF products. Palmer expects demand for these ETFs to increase as more institutions enter the market.

In addition to Palmer, Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci forecasts Bitcoin will reach at least $170,000 within the 18-month period following the halving.

MicroStrategy's holdings will increase 40% by 2025

Under Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has been accumulating Bitcoin since 2020 at an average price of $35,160. According to data from saylortracker, as of April 9, the company held 214,245 BTC.

Palmer predicts this accumulation trend will persist, pointing out that the company has consistently increased its Bitcoin holdings for 15 consecutive quarters.

Palmer expects MicroStrategy to own approximately 298,246 BTC by the end of 2025, a 40% increase from its current holdings. Palmer suggested the company would fund the purchase through a capital raise and excess cash generated from its enterprise software business.