Preamble:
The likelihood of a debt crisis explosion is difficult to assess precisely because it depends on many complex and interconnected factors.
Factors:
Debt Level: Global debt has reached record levels, exceeding 250% of global GDP in 2021.
Interest rates: Rising interest rates make servicing debt more expensive, increasing the risk of default.
Economic Growth: Low or no economic growth makes it more difficult to repay debt.
Political stability: Political instability can weaken economies and make them more vulnerable to crises.
Geopolitical conflicts: Geopolitical conflicts can disrupt financial and economic markets, increasing the risk of crisis.
Perspectives:
Some experts: The current debt level is unsustainable and a crisis is inevitable.
Other experts: The situation is less serious than it appears and the risks of crisis are exaggerated.
Events:
Recession: A global recession could precipitate a debt crisis.
Geopolitical shock: A major geopolitical shock could also trigger a crisis.
Conclusion:
The risk of an explosion of debt crisis is real and must not be ignored.
The likelihood of such a crisis is difficult to assess and depends on many factors.
It is important to monitor developments carefully and take steps to reduce risks.