I have always believed that this bull run will be the biggest in the history of cryptocurrencies. As we approach the halving, and as the PTSD-induced discussion of shortened cycles gains traction, I want to discuss today why I believe this bull run will be the biggest in the history of cryptocurrencies, and why fear in bear markets is the biggest obstacle to magnitude-changing gains.
Shortened cycle time:
The latest twist to cycle theory making the rounds on crypto Twitter is the concept of a shortening cycle. Proponents of this new, unproven theory claim that since we have already broken the previous cycle high prior to the halving, we are destined for a shortened cycle that starts earlier and ends earlier.
In short, this unproven nonsense ignores every fundamental difference in this cycle. The fact is that the 2021 bull run was interrupted by the Covid lockdown and the US stock market crash. Before that interruption, it was expected to start in a similar way before the halving. The crash hit the bull run, only slowed it down and delayed it. The 2021 bull run was supposed to be longer and earlier, just like the start of the 2024 bull run so far.
The 2024/2025 cycle is different in many ways, not the least of which is the ability for regular people and small companies in the US to acquire Bitcoin with existing analog infrastructure via spot ETFs. This opens the door for passive inflows, corporate balance sheets, retirement accounts, etc. Add to that the inevitable money printing, rate cuts, record low BTC exchange balances, record high long-term holders, top funds acquiring Bitcoin… all creating the conditions for the most explosive bull run in history.
Frankly, I actually expect this bull run to last longer than previous ones and last until the fall of 2025.
The strength of this bull market has been underestimated:
ETF inflows are an absolute game changer. BTC ETFs have broken nearly every ETF record since they were first conceived in the 1990s. Here is a quick summary of the more influential factors in this bull run, most of which are fundamental changes from previous cycles:
ETF inflows will create huge buying momentum (retirement accounts, asset management funds, pension funds, etc.)
Once ETF margining is implemented, there will be huge parabolic buying pressure (of course, there will also be selling pressure once a bear market hits)
Money printing, quantitative easing and rate cuts will inject huge monetary energy into the financial system seeking "risk assets" and wealth protection
An ETH ETF will eventually be approved and receive a lot of attention and inflows as financial advisors who missed out on the BTC opportunity look to recoup lost gains to appease their clients.
MicroStrategy’s strategy will be repeated over and over again by companies with depressed stock prices. Short the depreciating dollar through debt, then buy Bitcoin – repeat the process.
It is very likely that a large fund will announce the acquisition (and mining) of a Bitcoin reserve. This will trigger a race among the super-large funds to build hash power and strategically acquire Bitcoin reserves.
The meme coin craze is like the new lottery. When retail investors witness influential people posting life-changing 1000x returns, they will flock to buy these coins. This will attract a lot of mainstream attention and attract all kinds of retail investors who want to change their destiny. This also indicates that the bear market will be very bad because 99% of newcomers will fail and most new entrants will prove to be leeks.
Sell-level lows are no longer in sight, and the bears are waiting for unfulfilled low-price buy orders and the associated pent-up demand.
Ethereum is dead?
Ethereum has certainly underperformed so far. It sits somewhere between a store of value and a crypto transaction application layer, and therefore has failed to attract buyers from both perspectives.
Nonetheless, the people who often jump out to proclaim the death of ETH have reached a crescendo, which is often a perfect signal for a reversal. I expect ETH to be very close to a bottom relative to BTC and to outperform Bitcoin for the remainder of this bull run.
The main arguments in favor of ETH’s demise are usually “too expensive” or “too slow”. The reality is that most crypto value is traded on ETH, and almost all value is settled in ETH. The surge in L2 volume is effectively a bulk buyer of ETH block space and is expanding Ethereum exponentially. Combined with a significant ETH burning mechanism, and an eventual surge in demand for the ETH ETF, it will drive a parabolic price increase. When everyone is shouting the same message, be contrarian. The director's preference works in the opposite direction of the market, which has often been proven to be effective in the currency circle.
Most bloggers are full of bullshit:
The important thing is to fight FOMO. A lot of crypto Twitter influencers posting about their $3-10 million wallets, or making $300,000 in one night with meme coins, or their recent 100X trade is basically bullshit.
What they don’t state is that most of them lost these gains from relatively authentic crypto KOLs, having lost 100 times before each super high return trade occurred, nothing more than scratching lottery tickets
A meme can be fun, but for 99 out of 100 people, it's a failed attempt. You don't need to seize every opportunity, nor do you need to chase 50 different memes, and many YouTubers say they make millions of dollars from it. But you have to know that the essence of the meme game is to create deceptive noise.
Focus on making smart, prudent investments with solid risk/reward metrics.
in conclusion
One of the most important traits required to ride a successful bull market is conviction. It is the best defense against fear, uncertainty and doubt, mitigating emotional decision making and allowing for disciplined execution of strategies and accumulating those life-changing gains.
Gaining confidence requires hard work, a healthy dose of skepticism, and the courage to go against the grain when the bull market is at its loudest. Make no mistake, this bull market has all the makings of the biggest yet and will go higher than most expect.
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